000 
FXUS64 KMEG 050153 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007

.UPDATE...

TRANQUIL WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SATELLITE SHOWS
THAT SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS. HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WAS PROVIDING AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S. AS A RESULT...MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...IN AN UPDATE ALREADY SENT...LOWERED
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SPREAD
INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007/ 

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE MID SOUTH
WEATHER THROUGH THE COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
EITHER APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FAHRENHEIT WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 

12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY WITH THIS FROPA. THE 30
PERCENT POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE. 

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

JCL/RJO