000 
FXUS63 KICT 281050
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET:

TODAY:
WIDELY SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG...AND NORTH...OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. SPARSE
& SPORADIC NATURE OF THE CONVECTION DICTATES VCTS ASSIGNMENT TO
KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS EFFECTIVE 20-21Z. VFR CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING 3,500 FEET BY 18Z.

LATE TONIGHT:
MCS DEVELOPMENT VERY POSSIBLE OVER KS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH COMPLEX
FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS 05Z ONWARD. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS ASSIGNMENT TO BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL LOCATION AND
BEHAVIOR OF MCS COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007/ 

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND 
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. 

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHEAST KS AS THIS TIME.  PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THAT PORTION 
OF THE FRONT OVER ERN KS IS MAKING MORE PROGRESS THAN CEN KS 
SECTION. LACK OF ANY LIFT OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY HAS KEPT ANY 
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EARLY TODAY. QUESTION LATER TODAY IS 
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL END UP TODAY...WITH CONVERGENCE 
INCREASING ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM 
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP THINGS INITIALLY CAPPED ESPECIALLY WEST OF 
INTERSTATE 135.  SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS BASICALLY FROM 
CNU TO SLN. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG POOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH 
OF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS SOME STRONG STORMS...BUT A WEAK SHEARED 
ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH SLOW MOVING 
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. 

MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FN-CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
INCREASES ACROSS NW KS INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 06Z/SUN. THIS 
CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ORGANIZING 
ACROSS CEN KS...SO WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POP IN THIS 
AREA TONIGHT.  WILL BUMP UP POPS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE 
TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST PROPAGATION WILL TAKE 
THIS COMPLEX SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DECENT 0-3KM BULK 
SHEAR VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS SOME DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL EARLY IN 
ITS LIFE CYCLE.   

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION ON-GOING DURING THE START OF THIS TIME 
FRAME...AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL 
KANSAS EARLY ON SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CONVECTION 
WILL MAKE IT AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF WARMER MID LEVEL 
TEMPS.  CORFIDI VECTORS ALSO SUGGEST THAT FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO 
OK WILL BE LIMITED. SO CONVECTION COULD COME TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO 
DIE.  

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS CONVECTION AND REMNANTS OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM GENERALLY PPF-ICT-HYS WILL LEAD TO 
SOME MORE TSRA REDEVELOPING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. SO 
WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP AROUND FOR THIS. 

MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FN-CONVERGENCE COULD ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER 
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...WITH GFS 
FURTHER EAST NEAR CENTRAL KS WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST.  SO WILL 
ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THIS POP GO 
HIGHER IF GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT. 

MON-TUE:
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST THAT WEAK BOUNDARY COULD REMAIN STATIONARY 
FOR MON WITH STORM CHANCES AGAIN ON MON AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW 
LEADS TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT 
IS RATHER LOW...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW 
THROUGH MON NIGHT.  

WILL LEAVE TUE DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY 
REMNANTS WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE AS WELL. 

WED-FRI:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK 
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  
THIS SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR KS. OPERATIONAL GFS 
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW COULD PARK ITSELF ACROSS KS FOR 
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO SHOW THIS...SO 
WILL KEEP THIS DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS 
ENTERED INTO THE FORECAST LATER.

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD...ALBEIT NOT MUCH BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF KRSL AND KSLN THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON TIMING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THESE SITES (AS WELL AS
KHUT...KICT...AND KCNU). IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AT KRSL
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE AREA DUE TO
FOG. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION WITH 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. 

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  71  89  68 /  30  30  40  30 
HUTCHINSON      90  70  88  68 /  30  40  40  30 
NEWTON          90  70  88  68 /  30  40  40  20 
ELDORADO        90  70  87  68 /  30  30  40  20 
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  71  90  68 /  20  30  40  30 
RUSSELL         88  68  89  67 /  30  50  40  30 
GREAT BEND      90  68  88  68 /  30  40  40  30 
SALINA          88  69  88  67 /  30  50  40  20 
MCPHERSON       89  69  88  68 /  30  40  40  20 
COFFEYVILLE     90  71  89  68 /  30  20  40  20 
CHANUTE         89  70  89  68 /  30  30  40  20 
IOLA            89  70  89  68 /  30  30  30  20 
PARSONS-KPPF    90  71  89  68 /  30  30  40  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$