000 
FXUS63 KICT 262001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY 
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER 
THE HEARTLAND. 

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT):
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST...SITUATED 
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA...EXTREME NORTHWEST 
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. ANTICIPATING THIS BOUNDARY TO NOT REACH 
CENTRAL KS COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND 
WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES...THINKING MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST FRONTAL...AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SHOWER 
OR STORM NORTH OF I-70 LATE TONIGHT. 

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON 
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE SLOWER GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...THINKING 
NAM SOLUTION PROGRESSES FRONT TOO FAST TO THE SOUTH. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...GIVEN ANTICIPATED WEAK CONVERGENCE AND 
INSTABILITY/WEAK CAP. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHOULD INHIBIT 
SEVERE STORMS FROM FORMING...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE 
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE BOUNDARY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 
SUBTLE/WEAK RIPPLES IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK 
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED 
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT 
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT 
COULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. CASE 
AND POINT MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS PROGRESS A DECENT WAVE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH MAY PROMOTE GREATER NOCTURNAL 
COVERAGE. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY MODEST 
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE STRONG STORMS AT THE MOST...WITH THE 
GREATEST THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW 
STORM MOVEMENT. UNDERCUT HPC QPF VALUES FOR NOW...AS THOUGHT THEY 
WERE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN WEAK FORCING.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY): 
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE GFS IS HINTING AT
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS RUNNING LOW
ON THIS COMING TO FRUITION...SO I WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT A MINIMUM. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. THE VARIABLE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

KLEINSASSER/HAYES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING...BUT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A FAIRLY GOOD CAP IN PLACE.
PATCHY 3-5SM BR MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HUTCHINSON AND CHANUTE TAF
SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  92  68  90 /  10  10  20  20 
HUTCHINSON      69  92  68  90 /  10  20  30  20 
NEWTON          69  91  68  90 /  10  20  30  20 
ELDORADO        69  89  69  89 /  10  10  30  20 
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  91  69  90 /   0  10  20  20 
RUSSELL         69  91  67  88 /  20  20  30  20 
GREAT BEND      68  92  67  89 /  10  20  30  20 
SALINA          70  92  68  89 /  10  20  30  20 
MCPHERSON       69  92  68  90 /  10  20  30  20 
COFFEYVILLE     68  90  69  89 /   0  10  20  20 
CHANUTE         68  89  69  88 /   0  10  30  20 
IOLA            68  89  69  88 /  10  20  30  20 
PARSONS-KPPF    68  90  69  89 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$