000 
FXUS63 KICT 261128
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
628 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF UPDATE...MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT CNU TAF SITE
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ABOVE 4000FT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 

JAKUB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007/ 

DISCUSSION...

TODAY:

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS...BUT NO SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY WARM UP A BIT TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS. PER LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SHADED VALUES A BIT UNDER GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AT MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN
LACK OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND 0000 UTC TOP
SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD CAP...OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY DURING THE
DAY.

TONIGHT-FRI:

TOUGH FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH FORECAST THRU WEEKEND 
RIDING ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK FRONT. THE LATEST TRENDS
FROM ALL MODELS IS FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS RESULTED IN
TRIMMING BACK/DELAYING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
LIMITING FRIDAY DAYTIME PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS ALSO PUT THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN
WARM SECTOR WITH RATHER WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES EVEN IN CENTRAL
KS. PER COORDINATION...BUMPED UP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RESULTANT VALUES LIKELY A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
HIGHER END MIDDLE 90S+ WITH SUNSHINE AHEAD OF FRONT VS A CLOUDY
POST FRONT LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

FRI NIGHT-SUN:

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MODEL
CONSENSUS PUTS FRONT SQUARELY IN THE FORECAST AREA AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX TIME OF DAY. ORIENTATION OF FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROBLEMATIC...WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL
BEING LEAST LIKELY AND EQUAL CHANCES FROM EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL.
OPTED TO GO HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON COMBO OF
MOST LIKELY FRONTAL POSITION OF FRONT AND COOLER MIDDLE LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. KEPT PRECIPITATION IN THROUGH SUN AS IT STILL
APPEARS FRONT WILL HANG UP EITHER IN OR CLOSE TO FORECAST AREA.

MON-WED:

OTHERWISE ONLY A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO FOR CLIMATOLOGY/LOCAL EFFECTS
TO GOING GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  20 
HUTCHINSON      93  70  93  71 /  10  10  20  20 
NEWTON          90  70  91  70 /  10  10  20  20 
ELDORADO        89  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  20 
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  91  71 /  10  10  10  10 
RUSSELL         96  70  92  68 /  10  20  20  40 
GREAT BEND      94  69  92  67 /  10  10  20  30 
SALINA          95  71  93  71 /  10  10  20  40 
MCPHERSON       93  70  93  71 /  10  10  20  30 
COFFEYVILLE     89  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10 
CHANUTE         89  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  20 
IOLA            89  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  30 
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  71 /  10  10  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$