000 
FXUS63 KMPX 151141
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS


&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CHANNEL SAT LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT AN MCS FORMED OVER
EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA LAST EVENING...OR ON THE TOP OF A WELL
PRONOUNCED 1000-500 MB THICKNESS RIDGE...AND THIS SAME MCS IS NOW
PROPAGATING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE TIGHT THICKNESS GRADIENT
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LAST EVENING GFS (40 KM) SHOWED SUPPORTIVE
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH A
SUGGESTION THAT SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. STRONG THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE IS INDICATED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MPX CWA AND ALONG WITH THIS...STRONG 500-300 MB LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ACCORDINGLY...WE HAVE EMPHASIZED CONVECTIVE POPS IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT LINGERING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TOGETHER WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DIAGNOSED ISENTROPIC
LIFT...WE WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD SOAKING OVERNIGHT FOR THE
EAST HALF OF OUR CWA. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE A
GOOD BET...EVEN AFTER 06Z.

FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON MAX
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES
TO DISPLAY A LARGE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH MN WELL EAST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. SUCH A POSITION WOULD
FAVOR SEASONALLY WARM...HUMID WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS MUCH
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS

SEVERAL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FIRST OF WHICH IS PATCHY
MVFR VIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM KAQP TO KPNM TO KOEO. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO IMPROVE IN
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THAT OCCURS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT
TREND WILL BE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
TURN WEST THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ATTM. LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND
SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT SURGES EASTWARD. BEST PRECIP
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM NEAR KAXN TO KSTC AND ARCING DOWN TOWARDS
KMSP...KRNH FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING AND ONWARD INTO KEAU LATE
THIS EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MVFR CIGS/VIS COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT. ..MDB..


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$