000 
FXUS63 KMPX 141853
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.UPDATE.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS 
THE CONUS WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING 
FROM UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY. SHARP UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE WESTERN NOAM. THIS PLACES LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND 
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE 
UPCOMING WEEK. 

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA 
EARLY THIS MORNING AS FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW MOVES SE ACRS UPPER 
MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS LOW THROUGH THE
DAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER H85 TEMPS TRICKLE IN EARLY BUT REBOUND TO
LEVELS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS AROUND 80. CHALLENGES ARISE LATER SUNDAY AS
MODEL DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
GFS SHOWS THE WAVE COMING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY EVENING
WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE EAST. THERE IS
AGREEMENT WITH ARRIVAL OF NOSE OF UPPER JET INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SFC...THE GFS SENDS A LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MATCHING UP WELL
WITH THE UPPER TROF EVOLUTION EACH FORECASTS. SOME FEATURES OF
THE GFS LOOK TO BE OVERDONE /I.E. THE VORTICITY FIELD/ WHICH
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ITS OVERALL FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE NAM
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE RETAINED PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH REGARD TO BUILDING HEAT.
SIGNIFICANT HEAT WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME HINTS THAT AXIS OF WARMEST H85 AIR MAY BE
OVER THE CWA. HAVE WARMED TEMPS TOWARDS 90 FOR NOW GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING OF FEATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS AN INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OR
BETTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MODERATE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE
OF SURFACE FRONT. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KAXN AND KRWF. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 MPH AROUND SUNSET...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERING NORTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$
MDB/LS