000 
FXUS62 KMLB 251842
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...GFS UNDER DID POPS DURING THE DAY AS SEVERAL STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR BY MIDDAY AND PERSISTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON LONG BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SET UP. LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING OUT
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL NOT CARRY ONLY 10 PERCENT POPS
PAST 00Z BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR IN THE TEXT FORECAST FOR ANY SMALL POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY THAT LINGER.

TUE-FRI...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL NORTH RESULTS IN EASTERLY FLOW. 
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT DEEPENING MOISTURE AND VERTICAL 
LIFT WED-FRI AS INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z MAV
POPS TRENDING TOWARD OR ARE AT THE LIKELY POP CATEGORY WHICH IS
REASONABLE AS CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THU-FRI. TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

SAT-MON... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. 
KEEPS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WEAK 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA 
BREEZES TO SET UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...INTERACT OVER THE INTERIOR 
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE 
ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING 
ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMAL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT OR 
JUST ABOVE THEIR CLIMO 30S. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DAYTIME 
HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR LATE JUNE HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...STORMS FIRED UP PRETTY FAST INLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE
SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW THE PUSH FROM THE MAIN
EAST COAST BOUNDARY IS REACHING THE INTERIOR. ONCE THE CURRENT
STORMS NEAR THE KISSIMMEE RIVER ABATE...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
MORE ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED A GOOD DOUSING OF RAIN. SOME
AREAS OF SMOKE COULD ALSO OCCUR WELL WEST OF KMCO.

&&

.MARINE...EAST WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AS ADVERTISED AND
GENERALLY EXPECT 10 OR 10-15 KNOT WINDS TONIGHT/TUE WITH SEAS 2-3
FEET BUILDING TO 3-4 FEET. WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
TUE.

TUE NIGHT-SAT...EASTERLY FLOW TRANSITIONS TO OFFSHORE BY SAT. LONG 
EASTERLY FETCH AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
ALLOW SEAS/SWELL COMPONENT TO BUILD TO EXERCISE CAUTION
THRESHOLDS. EXPECT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
STRONGER STORMS AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.FIRE WEATHER...EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRI THEN MOIST OFFSHORE FLOW 
SAT-MON WILL KEEP MIN RH/S WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING STORMS AND RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WED-FRI AS
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES BY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  75  84 /  10  30  30  50 
MCO  73  91  74  88 /  10  30  30  50 
MLB  76  87  77  86 /  10  30  30  60 
VRB  75  89  77  86 /  10  30  40  60 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER