000 
FXUS62 KJAX 200722
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE GEORGIA
COASTLINE BETWEEN BRUNSWICK AND SAVANNAH...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO PUSH OFFSHORE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE...ALONG WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
10 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. COLD FRONT IS ALSO USHERING MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH DEW-POINTS LOWERING TO MID 40S. 

AS AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE...SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO KICK SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY HOLD NORTH AND EAST OF JAX CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL HIGH WILL ADVANCE
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND COUPLED WITH DEPARTING
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ENSUE. IN
FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ESTABLISH
OVER EASTERN ZONES TODAY. THUS...WILL ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES AND FOR PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...VALID FROM 9 AM UNTIL 8 PM EDT. 

WILL REVISE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE
SMOKE SOUTH...IMPACTING WARE...EASTERN CLINCH AND EXTREME WESTERN
CHARLTON COUNTIES. NOT SURE TO WHAT EXTENT MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DISPERSE SMOKE AS THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY FAN ONGOING
WILD FIRES. WILL REVISE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY AT 4 AM...WITH PRODUCT
EXPIRATION TIME OF 9 AM. DAY SHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH LOCAL
AGENCIES TO DETERMINE FATE OF THIS PRODUCT. 
 
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING OVER THE
NORTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS MADE GENERATE A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS...AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH FLAGLER COASTLINE
BEFORE DISSIPATING. FLOW WILL VEER TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH REACHES MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERALL...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (MON THRU THRU)...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY...THEN
WILL ADVANCE FARTHER OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE (EASTERLY) AND COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT INTO
MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE EXITS EAST...AS
UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG AND SMOKE EARLY THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN 
IFR/MVFR VSBYS...MORE LIKELY AT GNV AS N-NE FLOW PUSHES SMOKE TOWARD 
I-75 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR TODAY WITH STRONG NE WINDS 
GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. 

&&

.MARINE...NE SURGE WITH COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO GA WATERS AROUND 
12Z REACHING FL WATERS BY LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SCA 
HEADLINES. WINDS WILL START GRADUALLY DECREASING ON SATURDAY WITH 
SEAS/SWELLS STAYING UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPGRADED WATCH TO A WARNING FOR SUWANNEE VALLEY OF 
NE FL. LOW RH DURATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN FOUR HOURS...BUT WINDS 
WILL BE IN 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 
SAME AREA FOR TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL BE NOT BE AS STRONG SO WILL 
HOLD OFF ON WATCH. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  49  77  48 /  10   0   0   0 
SSI  69  56  70  59 /  10   0   0   0 
JAX  73  53  74  53 /  10  10   0   0 
SGJ  72  59  73  59 /  10  10   0   0 
GNV  78  53  79  51 /  10  10   0   0 
OCF  79  55  80  52 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHARLTON-
     CLINCH-WARE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY 
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 
     NM.

&&

$$

ZAPPE/ZIBURA/