000 
FXUS64 KFWD 150804
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT N TX THE POLAR SURGE AND WINDY CONDS SATURDAY
(HOPEFULLY THE LAST)...HAS CLEARED THROUGH A GOOD PTN OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE SYSTEM UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING AWAY AND TAKING AIM
ON THE MID-ATLANTIC/NE STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE STATE AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. WILL
HOLD PATCHY FROST IN FCST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISNT GREAT WITH STRONG
WINDS ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION THAT COULD AFFECT BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WE KEPT SPECIAL WX STATEMENT (SPSFWD) GOING TIL DAYBREAK
FOR FROST...SO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS. N TX WILL SEE A SUNNY
AND NICER DAY TODAY...WITH TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 70 DEG...UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC/ALOFT. THOUGH UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST 
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY STATES MON...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM A LITTLE
AS RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURNS NWD. AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT REALLY SCOURED THE NEAR-SHORE AREAS OF RICHER DEW PTS. 

WITH SPLIT-FLOW ALOFT...UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE EAST ONCE NEXT
KICKER SYSTEM/ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE CA/WEST COAST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL GET GOING BY TUES MORNING WEST OF I-35...THEN OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF N TX BY TUES AFTN/EVE...BEFORE EXITING E AWAY FROM US
BY WED MORNING. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AND BETTER SFC DEW PTS STAY
RELEGATED NEAR THE TX COASTLINE OR S/SERN TX...PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.25 IN AND THUS HAVE INCREASED RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES TO
LIKELY FOR TUES WITH POSSIBLE...ISOLATED/ELEVATED STRONG STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PER MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTH OF
UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH BASE OF OUR SYSTEM. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH/QUALITY DOESNT WARRANT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

MILD PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MILD
CONDS MAINTAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR UPPER RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE MORE STOUT FOR LATE WEEK...FORCING NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF N TX FOR LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. SW FLOW
ALOFT/INCREASING SLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT AREA LOOKS TO BE CAPPED ALOFT...WITH A DRY/WARM
FCST EXPECTED...THOUGH HUMID AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  46  72  55  68 /   0   0   0  20  60 
WACO, TX              72  46  71  54  73 /   0   0   0  30  50 
PARIS, TX             66  42  72  48  62 /   0   0   0  10  60 
DENTON, TX            68  42  72  51  67 /   0   0   0  20  60 
MCKINNEY, TX          66  40  72  50  65 /   0   0   0  10  60 
DALLAS, TX            68  49  72  55  67 /   0   0   0  20  60 
TERRELL, TX           67  45  73  52  68 /   0   0   0  10  60 
CORSICANA, TX         69  46  73  52  70 /   0   0   0  10  60 
TEMPLE, TX            70  46  71  57  75 /   0   0   0  30  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/05