000 
FXUS62 KILM 310244
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
945 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

.NEAR TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
TEMPS TOOK A QUICK NOSEDIVE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT OR EVEN CALM SFC WINDS.  HOWEVER THE SFC RIDGE HAS SLIPPED 
OFFSHORE...AND SOME OF THE METARS IN THE CAROLINAS HAVE COME IN WITH 
LIGHT SW WINDS AT 02Z.  GRIDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR INITIAL 
TEMP/DEWPOINT CONDITIONS...AND THE EXPECTATION OF NEARLY STEADY 
TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  CURRENT ZFP TEXT STILL HAS A DECENT 
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT THE 02Z SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS...A SADDLE POINT IS 
SLIDING ACROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGHER PRESSURE 
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS... 
WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A 
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS AT 41035 AND 41013 RUNNING AROUND 
2 FT. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE REFERENCE SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT SINCE 
THEY ARE ALREADY THERE. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON 
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. 

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR. HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT 
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS AT FLO ABOUT 
10Z. A SHORT PERIOD OF LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE AT CRE AROUND SUNRISE 
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ICW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD 
REMAIN MVFR OR GREATER DUE TO INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND 
MIXING. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2K SATURDAY...BUT CEILINGS 
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE 4K-7K RANGE THROUGH 
SATURDAY EVENING. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF RAIN EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT 
SHIFT SHOULD MONITOR FOR LLWS AT FLO ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z-13Z AS 
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD FALL JUST 
BELOW LLWS THRESHOLDS.    


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (315 PM EST)...
SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH LITTLE 
FAN-FARE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WHAT LITTLE LIFT IS 
AVAILABLE...1 CM/SEC...IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE BEST 
MID-LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A 
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER HOWEVER AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE 
VALUES FOR NOW.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMMENCES
IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY FROM SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WARRANTS POPS FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR MONDAY
MORNING UNTIL WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH MID-DAY. FORCING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AT THIS POINT FROM 500MB VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
STRONG DIFLUENCE AT 300MB. INTERESTING CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AS
WELL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE GIVING
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH GOOD SHEAR. THIS
OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING AS RECENT NEAR MISSES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COULD COME TO FRUITION THIS ROUND. ALL OF THIS SAID...MAINTAINED
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE AREA.

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MET NUMBERS ARE SOME
THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD. BASED ON WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A UNREALISTIC DEPICTION OF A COOL POOL AT 950MB BY
THE GFS...WILL USE THE WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY AND A BLEND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE EXTENDED...AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK REFLECTING A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE WEST.

SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TWEAKING DOWN POPS FOR THE LADDER PERIODS...AS
DOWNSLOPE/NORTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY KEEPS OUR AREA DRY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAS
MARINE...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...SHK