000 
FXHW60 PHFO 020142
AFDHFO

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU DEC 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT 
LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO RESULT...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS COULD BE HEAVY. A COLD FRONT ON 
THE WAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 
TRADES RETURN WITH THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED IN THIS LIGHT WIND FLOW...CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE 
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NONE OF THE RAIN GAGES 
ACROSS THE STATE REPORTED ANY RAIN BETWEEN 11 AM THIS MORNING AND 2 
PM THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...THE RADAR HAVE SHOWN SHOWERS IN 
A FEW OF THE AREAS WHERE THERE ARE NO RAIN GAGES. THERE HAVE BEEN 
SHOWERS OVER MAUI...PARTICULARLY NEAR HUELO ON THE NORTHEASTERN 
SLOPES OF HALEAKALA...AND NEAR KANAIO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES. 
WHILE BRIEFLY HEAVY...NONE OF THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED 
ANY PROBLEMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE 
AREAS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS. 

HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW 
MANY LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM KONA SUGGEST ALL THE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA ARE ABOVE 
12000 FEET. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM HILO BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2 PM SUGGEST 
THAT FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THAT AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND. THROUGH 
THIN SPOTS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS...LOW CLOUDS DO APPEAR TO BE FORMING 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS 
AREA CAREFULLY...AS THIS IS THE AREA WHERE HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPED 
YESTERDAY EVENING.

HAVE DECREASED THE POPS SURROUNDING THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR THE 
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. NOTHING UPSTREAM...AND EVERYTHING IS FORMING 
OVER THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVERAGE 
OVER THE BIG ISLAND...AND TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG 
ISLAND...DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS STARTS TO BRING TRADES BACK INTO THE AREA ON 
MONDAY...AND HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY TO START BRINGING THEM BACK IN THEN. GFS STILL SHOWS SOME 
MOISTURE AROUND WITH THE FRONT...AND THIS IS LIKELY AS THE FRONT 
DIES OUT AND THE REMAINING MOISTURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE RETURNING 
TRADE WIND FLOW. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP AND 
WX GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

M BALLARD