000 
FXUS63 KEAX 020238
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY WATCHING TRENDS ACROSS KANSAS WHICH FEATURE A WEAK COMPLEX 
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW KS...AND A MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF 
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE PLEASANT 
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE SETTLED INTO THE ENTIRE CWA...00Z 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED 
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NE 
KS INTO THE KC METRO AREA. 

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WELL DEFINED 
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN W-SW UPPER FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO INTO 
WESTERN KANSAS. THESE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK (AOB 20 KNOTS) 
AND MUCAPES ABOVE 750MB REMAIN LIMITED TO AROUND 500 J/KG...AN 
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT 
CENTERED ON THE 305K SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD 
LIKELY FOCUS INITIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL/NE 
KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT ANY COMPLEX TO THEN ADVECT ESE ALONG THE 
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE...REACHING THE KC METRO AREA AFTER 06Z. 

DAY SHIFT SEEMS TO HAVE HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE BOUNDARY 
LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF POPS LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST TIMING 
AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY WITH THIS 
SCENARIO LOOKING QUITE PROMISING). THIS COULD MUDDY FORECAST HIGH 
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 6-8 
HOURS TO THE MID SHIFT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE RUNNING THEME THIS 
SEASON SEEMS TO BE WHEN IN DROUGHT KEEP IT OUT...WHEN ITS 
WET...RAINS A SURE BET.

BOOKBINDER

&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
330 PM...

THE VORTICITY MAX THAT ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND 
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS THEY HAVE MOVED AWAY 
FROM THE AXIS OF THETA-E ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KANSAS. I AM NOT 
ANTICIPATING FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT 
STALLED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
WILL PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE 
ALONG THE FRONT IS AROUND 85, AND ELEVATED STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY 
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE EARLIEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER 
COLORADO ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN 
ROCKIES. STORMS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL INTERACT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT 
BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. I PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION 
OVER KANSAS TONIGHT OVER THE NAM. THE PRESENCE OF THIS VORTICITY MAX 
OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND 
FIELDS FORECAST BY THE GFS OVER KANSAS TONIGHT. STRONGER 850MB WINDS 
SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH SUSTAINS CONVECTION THROUGH EASTERN 
KANSAS BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. I HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
ALONG THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER TO 30 PERCENT.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TOMORROW MORNING OVER 
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI, I HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT 
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND LOWERED TOMORROWS HIGHS A FEW 
DEGREES AS WELL.

KOCH

MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY 
DESPITE BECOMING MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED ON SATURDAY. HAVE NOT 
INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS 
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND 
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A FRONT 
INTO THIS FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TODAYS GFS 
HAS SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE HAVE 
EXTENDED SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES 
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO KEPT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON 
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

STOFLET

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 
23Z. HOWEVER...AN IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BETWEEN KMCI AND 
KOJC...OWING TO AFTERNOON MIXING....IS A CLEAR HINT THAT A FAIRLY 
IMPRESSIVE THETA-E GRADIENT STILL EXISTS AT MID LEVELS. 

WITH THAT SAID...THE TAF FORECAST OVERNIGHT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS 
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WOULD SUGGEST. 
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALREADY MATURING OVER SW KS...AND AN AXIS OF 
DEVELOPING ACCAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MAY 
FORESHADOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES 
OVERNIGHT ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. WILL MONITOR PROFILER DATA 
AND SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO MAINTAIN A 
SCATTERED MID LEVEL DECK OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VISIBILITIES AND 
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. FIGURING THE CURRENT BEST THREAT FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TOWARD 
MORNING...BEGAN TO HINT TOWARD THIS SCENARIO WITH A 10KFT CB CLOUD 
GROUP AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKC DUE TO 
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND SUPERB EARLY EVENING RADIATIONAL COOLING 
SETUP. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CIRRUS CANOPY 
LATER TONIGHT WOULD SUGGEST THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT 
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS LOW. 

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

WFO EAX