000 
FXUS65 KBYZ 292040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
240 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

WHILE ONE SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS BIGHORNS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ANOTHER WAS MOVING THROUGH YELLOWSTONE PARK TOWARD OUR
SW ZONES. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BOUNCE CONVECTION SO THAT BEST
CHANCE OF ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN NW ZONES. BRISK WEST WINDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING EXPECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE CONDITIONS...STILL GOOD FOR
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 9 PM.

FOR SATURDAY...PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH. BULK OF MONSOONAL
FLOW SUPPRESSED AND KEPT OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH 850H TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 28C AT
BILLINGS. 

FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...PROGGS ARE INDICATING WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW TO SPREAD OVER COUNTY WARNING AREA BEHIND WEAK COOL
FRONT/SURFACE TROF. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DROP HUMIDITIES INTO
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS. BUFKIT HINTS AT MIXING WINDS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE FIRE DANGER IS HIGH/VERY HIGH. AT THIS
TIME...PREFER TO LET NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR WINDS.
WILL WORD FIRE WX DISCUSSION STRONGLY FOR NORTHEAST ZONES.
ELSEWHERE HUMIDITIES NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EVALUATED SHIFT TO SHIFT.

SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS A BIT EAST ALLOWING SW
FLOW TO CARRY INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA MORE EFFECTIVELY. SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER AREA SUNDAY. HAVE EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH. KEPT TEMPS
AROUND GUIDANCE. TESAR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT MEAN LONG WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NEAR
105W. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT ON SWINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MONTANA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. MID LEVEL PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL LINK UP WITH SURFACE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PACIFIC FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WITH BIGGEST CHANGE BEING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK NORTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THAT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEIER

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE HIGH BASED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE AREA. MEIER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/094 063/095 061/094 063/090 061/085 060/089 060/092
    20/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/U    00/U
LVM 052/092 052/092 054/091 052/087 054/084 049/088 049/090
    21/T    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    00/B    00/U
HDN 063/099 063/096 062/098 061/094 059/088 058/094 058/096
    20/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/U    00/U
MLS 063/099 063/098 063/095 065/091 064/088 062/091 062/093
    10/U    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U
4BQ 065/096 062/094 064/095 063/090 061/088 060/092 060/093
    20/B    02/T    20/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    00/U
BHK 061/095 061/096 059/094 062/090 061/087 056/086 059/091
    20/U    00/U    20/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U
SHR 055/094 056/094 060/093 058/089 059/086 058/088 058/091
    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 28-29-34-35-38>42-56-57-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS