000 
FXUS63 KFSD 151420 AAA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
920 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT SETTING UP FROM NEAR KVTN TO KHON INTO NORTHEAST SD THIS 
MORNING. BOTH THE LBF AND ABR SOUNDINGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS 
OF INSTABILITY. ABR NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC FROM 700MB-400MB...WHICH 
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. LATEST 
MODEL RUNS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING FROM ND INTO MN 
TODAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
ALONG PERIPHERY OF CAP...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. BOTH SOUNDINGS 
ALSO INDICATE MID 90S NEEDED TO BREAK CAP...SO WILL REMOVE EARLY 
AFTERNOON POPS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

08


.PREV DISCUSSION...
WEAK FNTL BOUNDARY FM S OF FAR TO W OF 9V9 TO SFD MOVG SLOWLY SEWD 
OVR CWA MAINLY N OF I90 THIS AFTN AND MAY SET OFF A FEW TSTMS WITH 
SOME LOW LVL HEATING AND COOLING IN THE MID LVLS. SO WL KEEP PREV 
SMALL CHCS OF TSTMS N OF I90 AND ADD INTO NRN PTN OF NWRN IA LATER 
THIS AFTN AND EVE AS ANY TSTMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH UPR FLOW. THEN 
BIG CAPPING MOVG FM W TO E OVR CWA THRU SAT AND SHOULD WARM UP 
NICELY ESP IN WRN CWA WHERE 100 DEG QUITE PSBL FAR W. WILL ALSO
BEEF UP RETURN SLY WINDS ESP IN WRN CWA FOR SAT AFTN. WARM BREEZY 
NGT FOR SAT NGT...THEN HOT DAY AGAIN FOR SUN WITH GOOD MIXOUT. WENT 
WARMER THAN PREV FCST FOR SERN CWA AND A LIT COOLER WRN CWA AS SOME 
THICKNESS COOLING TAKES PLACE WITH APPROACH OF CDFNT. THIS CDFNT 
WILL START OFF DRY SUN...BUT AS DIURNAL LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE SLY 
JET TAKES OVER AND PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE ALG FNT...AND CAP 
BREAKS WITH APPROACH OF STG UPR TROF...EXPCT AT LEAST SCT TSTMS TO 
DVLP ALG FNT ESP SE OF A LN FM E OF BKX TO FSD TO YKN BY LATE AFTN. 
THESE TSTMS COULD RAPIDLY GO SVR AFT HEATING OF DAY. THEN TSTMS 
SHOULD MOVE SEWD OVR NWRN IA AND ERN PTN OF SWRN MN DURG EVE.
COOLED OFF TEMPS FM PREV FCST FOR MON THRU MON NGT AS THERE WILL
BE A GOOD COOL SHOT BEHIND FNT...AND AIR MASS WILL RADIATE OUT MON 
NGT WITH DRIER AIR. THEN GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS FM W TO E OVR CWA
FM TUE THRU THU. UPPED TEMPS FOR NEXT THU AS ANY FNT FM N HOLDS OFF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE. 
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
RYRHOLM