000 
FXUS63 KFSD 122024
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DEVELOPMENTAL SITUATION TNGT AS STG NEG TILT TROF PIVOTS NEWD INTO 
CWA LATER TNGT AND TAPS INTO GOOD MOIST SSELY LOW TO MID LVL FLOW. 
PROBLEM RIGHT NOW IS DISCONNECT BTWN JUICY SRN STREAM MCS IN KS AND 
GOOD MID LVL NRN STREAM BOUNDARY DVLPG W AND N OF CWA THRU MON. 
EXPCT ENUF NOCTURNAL MOISTURE INFLOW AND UPR DYNAMICS TO FILL IN 
BTWN IN MUCH OF CWA LATER TNGT WITH EXPCD FIRST E/W BAND OF SHWRS/
TSTMS MOVG NWD OVR CWA. THIS BAND SHOULD PIVOT NNWD THRU CWA EARLY 
MON AS SFC LOW HANGS BACK TO SW IN NEB. BREAK IN PRECIP EXPCD WITH 
QUASI DRY SLOT IN MOST OF CWA THRU MIDDAY BEFORE UPR LOW AND DIURNAL 
HEATING REGENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS FM W TO E IN CWA MON AFTN. BEST POPS 
SHOULD CONTINUE IN NWRN CWA. WITH BEST QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPCD IN 
NWRN THIRD OF CWA WITH BOTH FIRST BAND LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG AND 
WRAPAROUND MON AFTN THRU EVE...SO WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR SD CWA 
W OF I29 WHERE GROUND IS ALREADY QUITE SATURATED. SPEEDED UP EWD 
MOVEMENT OF SYS THRU TUE FM PREV FCST AS ALL MODELS SHOWING GOOD 
PROGRESS. KEPT STATUS QUO FOR DRY AND WARMER FCST WED THRU SUN...BUT 
CAN SEE TREND OF MODELS TO EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN UPR RDG...WITH 
THREAT OF PRECIP POISED JUST BEYOND THIS FCST. GUID TEMPS...ESP 
LOWS...SEEM ON THE COOL SIDE WITH GOOD SLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE 
HUMID AIR EXPCD FM FRI THRU WEEKEND.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH W OF I29 LATE TNGT THRU MON EVE.
MN...NONE. 
IA...NONE. 
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
RYRHOLM