000 
FXUS65 KBYZ 280248
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
848 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT AGAIN ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA.
LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS DECOUPLING AS ANTICIPATED AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST
LOWS LOOK IN THE BALLPARK...NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT NEWEST DATA...STILL CONSISTENT WITH WEAKENING UPPER
LOW NEAR GREAT LAKES TO STRETCH OUT AND SWING LOBE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA BY SATURDAY EVENING. NAM ALSO CONSISTENT WITH UPSLOPE PCPN
ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS SATURDAY EVENING. SO CONFIDENCE IN A
SOLUTION WITH A COOLER AND POSSIBLY DAMP LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND IMPROVING. FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. TESAR


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

SOME FAIR UNCERTAINTY STILL AROUND STARTING MONDAY. NEWEST GFS
HAS MADE A FAIRLY BIG CHANGE MONDAY IN HOW IT HANDLES ENERGY THAT
PUSHES ACROSS AREA SUNDAY. EARLIER RUNS WERE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE ENERGY BUT LATEST RUN CLOSES OFF ENERGY OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. ECMWF AT THIS TIME HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
EVEN WITH THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...BOTH EC AND GFS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THUS HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST COOLER THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL AS GETTING SOME
POPS IN WESTERN ZONES. SAME TYPE OF UNCERTAINTY CCONTINUESTHROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES...AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON COOLER SIDE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
CALL. RASCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/071 038/059 036/066 046/070 048/073 049/073 048/073
    00/U    23/R    22/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
LVM 033/073 036/058 034/063 037/069 042/070 043/070 041/070
    01/U    33/R    23/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
HDN 039/069 035/059 033/069 044/072 047/078 049/072 047/074
    00/U    23/R    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 038/068 035/058 033/070 047/072 048/075 050/076 049/074
    01/B    12/R    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 039/067 037/059 035/066 043/071 047/072 047/075 048/071
    00/B    23/R    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 036/064 033/055 031/070 044/070 046/071 046/071 047/071
    01/N    12/R    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 039/070 037/055 035/063 039/068 044/069 046/071 045/070
    00/U    33/R    30/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS