000 
FXUS66 KPQR 050338
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT MON APR 04 2005

.SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MOST
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENDED THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INLAND...BRIEFLY. AN
ACTIVE JETSTREAM STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BRING A
PARADE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO OUR AREA THIS WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND A WARM FRONT BRUSHING THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE COAST AND INLAND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INLAND BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY. WILLSON
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE INLAND AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE STABILIZING BEHIND
THE 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS BUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS STILL
LINGERING ON THE CASCADES. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE ALREADY SPREADING INLAND AND HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT HAS A BIT OF WESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT ON THE AFTERNOON MARINE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AHEAD OF IT
SHOULD MAKE REASONABLE PROGRESSION TOWARD THE COAST WITH 9 MILLIBAR
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE NORTH END OF IT. THERE IS FAIRLY TIGHT
ISOBAR PACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT BOUNDARY LEVEL AND 850 MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
TUE INTO WEDS SO EXPECT GALE WARNINGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL INCLUDE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MODELS SHOW A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT BRUSHING THE
NORTH COAST WITH -32 DEGREES AT 500 MB THU...IN ADDITION THERE WILL
BE SOME SHEAR THEN WITH MODELS SOUNDINGS PUTTING 416 SWEAT INDEX NEAR
ASTORIA EARLY THU AND LI -2 THURSDAY SO ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM THERE AND PLENTY OF COOL SHOWERS INLAND. SHOULD
SEE SOME MORE SNOW ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN AS WELL. WILLSON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW AMPLIFIES A BIT TOWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN. TOLLESON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS
AST 368886  PDX 124576  SLE 124576  EUG 123576
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TONIGHT.
         GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TUE AND TUE
          NIGHT.

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND