000 
FXUS64 KLIX 190830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
230 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BIG DIFERENCES IN POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH ETA THE 
WETTEST TODAY AND DRIEST SUNDAY. BIASES APPEAR TO BE BASED ON TIMING 
OF SHORT WAVES MOVING IN 500MB WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY 
SHOWS THE FIRST SHORT WAVES STREAKING ACROSS TEXAS AND APPROACHING 
THE FTW TO COLLEGE STATION LINE AT 0800Z. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF 
SPEED IT WILL PASS THRU OUR CWA BY 1400Z TODAY WHICH IS WELL AHEAD 
OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND A TAD SLOWER THAN THE AVN/GFS VORT PROG AND 
WELL BEHIND THE ETA POSITION OF THE SAMNE VORT. WILL CUT BACK THE 
POPS CLOSER TO THE AVN MODEL ACORDINGLY. NEXT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY 
MOVING ACROSS AZ/NM LINE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. BEST 
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF 
CONVECTION BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. NEXT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON 
AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. 
CLEARING EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS A STRETCH 
FOR THE MODELS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS BASED 
ON POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  55  71  58 /  40  30  50  30 
BTR  72  55  72  58 /  30  30  50  20 
MSY  72  56  74  61 /  20  30  50  20 
GPT  67  54  70  57 /  20  20  50  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$