000 
FXUS64 KBMX 171036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
435 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.  LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT NOT AS MUCH RAINFALL.
ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS HOVERING
AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.  

CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE AREA.  LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS STILL HANGING AROUND.  CURRENT
THINKING IS TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE BEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT 7 AS PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE.  AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER BY REACHING INTO THE 
MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS BY SATURDAY
AS THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WET WITH THIS NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH MORE DRY AND
ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  DECIDED TO FAVOR
THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION AS AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH.  NOT MUCH
FORCING SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA SO CHOSE TO STICK WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY.  

WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...A COLD FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FIZZLE OUT.  THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL IMPULSES TO RIDE ALONG IT BEGINNING SUNDAY.
WITH THAT SAID...CONTINUED HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE WORK WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. 

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE
BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD US
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSE OFF OVER EAST TEXAS...THEN QUICKLY OPEN
UP AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST. LAST FEW RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SUCCESSIVELY DIGGING THE LOW/TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH...AND FINALLY
CLEARING THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS HAVE
SIMILAR EVOLUTION BUT HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. 18Z DGEX IS SIMILAR TO THE CAN GLOB AND NO GAPS ALTHOUGH ITS
OLD. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GFS.

SURFACE FRONTAL POSITIONS AND ASSOCIATED QUANTITATIVE FIELDS WILL
HOLD THE TRUMP CARD WITH THIS SYSTEM REGARDING STRENGTH AND
OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE QUITE COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH JUICY UNSTABLE AIR LURKING
SOUTH. ANY SMALL SHIFT IN THE POSITIONS OF THE LOW OR THE FRONT
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CLOSED LOWS ARE VERY
TRICKY IN THE WINTER TIME...LUCKILY THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
TO DEAL WITH. DUE TO LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND FRONTAL POSITION...
KEPT VERY CLOSE TO GFS MOS VALUES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR
FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  35  63  39 /  20   0   0  10 
ANNISTON    48  36  63  40 /  20   0   0  10 
BIRMINGHAM  49  37  65  43 /  10   0   0  10 
TUSCALOOSA  52  37  66  44 /  10   0   0  10 
CALERA      50  38  65  43 /  10   0   0  10 
AUBURN      49  36  66  40 /  10   0   0  10 
MONTGOMERY  53  38  67  43 /  10   0   0  10 
TROY        54  38  66  42 /  10   0   0  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

KH/99
75/LINHARES