000 
FXUS64 KTSA 170906
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER 
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS POISED TO DIVE INTO THE 
CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS 
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH BREEZY SLY 
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TECHNICALLY...OUR 
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WONT BE MET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH 
WARM TEMPS...GUSTY SLY WINDS AND MINIUMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 
25 PERCENT...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF NE OK.

WEAK PACIFIC FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO ENTER THE WRN PARTS OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER 
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...SO 
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT LOW POPS TO OUR FAR ERN ZONES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER NE
OK/NW AR. STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUN
AND AFTERNOON TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH ONE SUBTLE WAVE PROGGD TO 
MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE 
LURKING ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO NRN TX...WITH SOME NWD RETURN 
EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY (ALTHO ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE 
FROM WORKING N THROUGH ALL THE FORECAST AREA). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 
CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER SE OK.

00Z GFS CONSISTENT IN MOVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE TX 
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY INTO NRN AND ERN TX BY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z
ECMWF LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART (PERHAPS A
BIT FARTHER N WITH THE TRACK). NUDGED POPS UP SOME FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  45  66  34 /   0  10  10  10 
FSM   63  38  67  39 /   0   0  20  10 
MLC   62  45  66  37 /   0   0  10  10 
BVO   63  41  66  27 /   0  10  10  10 
FYV   60  38  61  33 /   0  10  20  10 
BYV   61  39  59  36 /   0  10  20  20 
MKO   63  42  64  36 /   0   0  10  10 
MIO   64  44  65  31 /   0  10  20  10 
F10   61  44  64  36 /   0   0  10  10 
HHW   61  44  67  42 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 21
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18