000 
FXUS65 KMSO 062110
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
210 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EVER PRESENT RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COULD
MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AS THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE TUESDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME CLOUDS TO LINGER...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS FEATURE IN ON WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THE ETA/NAM SLOWING IT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE NEXT FEATURE COMING IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRANSITION
THE REGION INTO A TROUGH PATTERN BY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES
BRING IN A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT RETURNS TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THIS
TIME MADE NO CHANGES...WAITING TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY CONSISTENCY
WITH THE MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK APPEAR TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE MIN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL. &&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM/ADAIR/MSJ
LONG TERM/SMITH
weather.gov/missoula