000 
FXUS64 KTSA 160255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
854 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. INITIAL PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...WHILE ACTUAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR I-40 IN EASTERN
OK UP TO JUST SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS NOT OVERLY COLD AND WILL BASICALLY SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NONETHELESS AFTER RECORD HIGHS
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. 

OVERALL GOING FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. SFC TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED INTO MID 40S ALONG KANSAS BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LOW LEVEL CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF 5MB/3 HR PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND FRONT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BRISK NORTH WINDS. THIS
WILL ACTUALLY HOLD TEMPS UP SOME IN SPITE OF CAA...BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS. AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL MO COULD BACK BUILD INTO NE SECTIONS LATER ON.

WILL SEND UPDATE TO REFLECT MAINLY THE HOURLY TRENDS AND MAKE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WINDS IN THE ZFP. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE ISSUED AFTER A LOOK AT 9 PM OBS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTER ID= 14