000 
FXUS61 KCLE 160543
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
1245 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2005

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL 
SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING SNOW 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE 
EXPECTED WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GENERIC 1-3 
INCH TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING WRN OH 
BY EARLY AFT AND IN THE EAST AROUND 00Z.  HOWEVER AFTER THE UPPER 
TROUGH SWINGS EAST 850 TEMPS OVER LAKE ERIE DROP TO -16C TO -18C AND 
AFTER A SHORT LULL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START IN THE SNOWBELT 
IN EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.  

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
ENHANCED BANDING SEEN DVLPING ON SAT PIX OVR MO/IL AREA SEEMS TO HV 
SEWRD PROGRESSION. BEGINNING TO QUESTION HOW MUCH ACCUM CAN BE 
PUSHED BACK N TO LERI LKSHORE ON SUN BUT TIL MID SHIFT HAS LOOK AT 
00Z RUN BETTER JUDGEMENT TELLS ME TO LV SUN FCST AS IS.  FOR TNGT WL 
ADJUST ACCUM WORDING A BIT TO DOWNPLAY THE INCH OF ACCUM FOR S AND S 
CNTRL ZONES. BLV DRY AMS WL CAUSE INITIAL FEW HRS OF SNOW TO BE USED 
JUST TO SATURATE AMS DOWN TO SFC SO ACCUMULATING SN MAY NOT OCCUR 
TIL RIGHT TWD DAYBREAK. BEST UVV AND ENERGY S OF CWA SO SN SHUD BE 
LGT ANYWAY.  CLDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP TEMP FALLS AS READINGS HIER 
THAN GUIDANCE ALMOST EVERYWHERE. WL ADJUST UP ABT A CAT FOR A FEW 
AREAS.  OTHER CHGS JUST TO CLEAN UP EVE WORDING.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FOLLOWED THE ETA/MESOETA THRU THE NEAR TERM.  FOR TNGT MDLS SHOW 
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE 
LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING.  DP MSTR MOVES INTO WRN OH 
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT AND THEN COVERES THE ENTIRE CWA BY 09Z.  
EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP MNN FDY AREAS FIRST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN 
SPREAD EAST AND NORTH BY 12Z.  XPC ACCUMS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVRNGT 
WITH AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE SW COUNTIES BY MORNING AND AN INCH 
OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  FOR SUNDAY MID LVL LOW TRACKS ACRS SRN TO ERN 
OHIO AS SHOWN BY THE 850MB WIND WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION WEAKENS 
CONSITERABLE AS ITS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.  
MEANWHILE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS ERN OH NWRN PA DURG THE AFTN 
AFTERNOON.  WHILE BEST DYNAMICS ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA UVV AND MSTR 
SHOULD RESULT IN A 1-3 INCH ACCUM IN THE EAST...AND IF BEST UPPER 
DIVERGENCE TRACKS FURTHER NORTH WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT 2 TO 
4.  NO HEADLINES FOR THIS ATTM SINCE ITS REALLY NOT ENOUGH FOR AN 
ADVSRY BY ITSELF.  AFTER PASSAGE OF THE DSIPTING LOW HWVR...THE MASS 
FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO THE COASTAL LOW TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE 
NW ACROSS THE LAKE.  BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS LINING UP TO FAVOR PTNS OF 
ASHTABULA COUNTY...AND THEN NWRN PA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 
MODERATE LAKE-850MB INSTBY AND GOOD LOW LVL LIFT THRU THE LOWEST 5 
TO 6KFT AND EQL AROUND 12KFT. LIFT CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY WITH 
LAKE-850MB INSTBY BCMG EXTREME.  ALSO THE LIFT AND INSTBY BOTH 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RESIDE IN THE THRML LAYER FAVORED BY 
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. LOOK FOR A SYNOPTIC 1 TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY 
FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 6 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE LKLY MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS END BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN THE WEST WITH DRY 
CONDS MONDAY.  
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY)...
WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SNOW IN THE SNOW BELT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL 
ALLOW FOR A DRY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BLDS IN.  ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW 
MID WEEK STARTING TUES NIGHT WITH WARM ADVN/ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ITS 
WAKE.  PERSISTENT COLD NWLY FLOW LATE WEEK WL KP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 
FCST SPCLY DWNWND OF THE LAKE.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY OHZ014-089. 
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY PAZ001-003.

&&

SHORT TERM..TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
&&

$$