000 
FXUS64 KTSA 100912
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
310 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSITIONING OF A 
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST 
OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE KANSAS 
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION THIS MORNING...THE 
POPULAR THINKING IS THAT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT 
PROGGED BY THE MODELS IS USUALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO ALONG WITH 
THAT SO THIS WOULD PLACE THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF 
THE DAY. THIS COULD MEAN A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS 
DEPENDING UPON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT ANY LOCATION IS. GREAT BUST 
POTENTIAL HERE.

THE SAME PROBLEM WITH FRONTAL POSITIONING EXISTS FOR TUESDAY. AGAIN 
THERE IS GREAT BUST POTENTIAL WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BY 
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DEFINITELY MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL 
SYSTEM.

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
SUNDAY...THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE 
CENTER STAGE AND BECOME THE MAIN TOPIC OF CONVERSATION. BY 
WEDNESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR 
CORNERS REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE UPON THE TSA 
FORECAST AREA. A 90 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK COMBINED WITH UPPER 
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS. A 
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AREA OF 1400 CAPE AND -5 LI SHOULD BE IN 
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...SETTING THE 
STAGE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST IF I 44. THE 
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY 
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES...COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOW INTO THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO A WINTRY 
MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY 
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

IF THAT WEREN/T ENOUGH...ROUND TWO WILL BE THE INVASION OF A POTENT 
ARCTIC AIRMASS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A COUPLE OF SURGES OF 
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BY LATE IN THE 
WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TSA FORECAST AREA AT 
LEAST AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC BLAST...WITH SATURDAY MORNING 
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS FAR SOUTH AS I 44. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH 
MANY AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW FREEZING 
FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY.


PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    60   42   50   44 /  10   20   20   40 
FSM    67   52   65   55 /  10   20   30   30 
MLC    68   57   58   55 /  10   20   20   40 
BVO    49   30   41   36 /  20   20   20   40 
FYV    61   53   60   53 /  20   20   30   30 
BYV    60   52   63   53 /  20   20   30   30 
MKO    63   48   53   54 /  10   20   20   30 
MIO    52   39   45   41 /  20   20   20   30 
F10    65   43   52   48 /  10   20   20   40 
HHW    69   61   70   55 /  10   20   20   40 

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
$$