000 
FXUS62 KJAX 090159
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 PM EST WED DEC 8 2004

.TONIGHT...LATEST SFC DATA SHOWS WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO NWD FROM 
NEAR A SAVANNAH TO ALBANY LINE...AS CAN BE SEEN FROM TEMP/DEWPOINT 
GRADIENTS. RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OVER SE GA DRIFTING 
NWD WITH ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND NOTED. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT 
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT REACHING CENTRAL SC BY 12Z THU AS 
850 MB FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING STORM 
SYSTEM TO OUR W. THUS EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD 
AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN W AND NW OF THE AREA. 
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECT TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE 
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND ALREADY NEAR CALM SFC WINDS EXPECTED 
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG 
OVER THE FL ZONES. ALSO IN SUPPORT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...IR IMAGERY 
SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNING OUT AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD 
ALSO BE PREVALENT...ESP OVER SE GA. DUE TO THE MIX OF THE 3-5 KFT 
CLOUD LAYER AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ABOVE SFC LAYER NOT CONFIDENT 
ATTM TO GO WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALSO EXPECT BY 12Z THU THAT HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT BACK OVER THE AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL LEVEL JET. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MAKE MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BUT PROBABLY WILL OPT FOR KEEPING SLIGHT POPS 
FOR SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT 
AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN LAST 
NIGHTS MIN...BUT ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED IN THE GRIDS. 
   
.MARINE...LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS STRETCHING 
FROM THE SC WATERS TO OUR NRN MARINE AREA AND INLAND OVER SE GA. PER 
GUIDANCE AND OBS...BELIEVE VSBYS ARE PROBABLY DOWN AROUND 3-5 MILES 
IN OUR NEARSHORE GA MARINE ZONES WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 1-2 
DEG. WITH WINDS PROBABLY STAYING AOB 10 KT NEAR THE COAST WILL 
INSERT MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO ABOUT 1/2 
MILE BY SUNRISE...PRIMARILY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND 
WATERWAYS. CURRENT TRENDS AT BUOYS SHOW SE TO S FLOW AROUND 6-8 KT 
AND SEAS 1-2 FT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S 
TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH HIGHEST WINDS 
OFFSHORE. SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 1-2 FT.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

ARS/PP