000 
FXUS66 KPQR 242052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT SUN OCT 24 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON NIGHT...THEN SINK
SLOWLY SE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PACIFIC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP TO THE
COAST WED NIGHT AND THU...USHERING IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD LATE
IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING OVER MOUNTAINS. LATER TONIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP AS WARM FRONT SINKS DOWN THE COAST.
MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT MON...WITH GFS
TENDING TO BE FASTEST. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE CORT
DIGGING S OFF THE COAST...BELIEVE THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY S ALONG THE COAST. INLAND WHERE THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AS IT MOVES INLAND...BELIEVE PROGRESS WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER...TAKING THE FRONT THROUGH THE S PART OF THE ARE MON EVENING.
THERE IS DECENT LOOKING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT ITS DURATION SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TO ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES MON AND MON EVENING...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. APPEARS TO BE GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TUE AND WED...BUT A LACK OF
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SOME...SO MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD POPS APPEAR IN ORDER.

.LONG TERM...LATEST MODEL RUNS TEND TOWARDS A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS. GIVEN THE INABILITY ON MODELS TO STICK WITH A
SPECIFIC PATTERN...WILL TEND TO KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST RELATIVELY
BROADBRUSHED...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS
AST 8+8631 PDX 198631 SLE 199631 EUG 199631
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THIS
          AFTERNOON.
         GALE WARNING ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
$$