665 
FXUS64 KLIX 240346
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH WISCONSIN AND JET MAX OF 
120KTS FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO NORTH ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH 
EAST. ZONAL FLOW AT 5H OVER TX/LA AND SURFACE 1018MB HIGH OVER SOUTH 
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH PUSH FOR THE BOUNDARY TO 
ENTER CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTION ACROSS 
THE AREA...WILL LOWER POPS TO LOW CHANCE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE 
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SRN PORTION TENDING TO FLATTEN THE STRONG 
UPPER HIGH OVER THE NRN GULF COAST REGION. THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS A 
NOT MATERIALIZED OVER AREA TO ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE. SCATTERED W 
LA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL LA AND SW MS LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL TO N 
OF FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS 
NE AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NWD AGAIN. HOWEVER RIDGE SHOULD 
BE DAMPENED ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF 
THE AREA THIS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY REDEVELOP 
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z SIL AND UPSTREAM LCH SOUNDING SHOWED 
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AND MODESTLY WARM AIR...WHICH WOULD NOT 
BE INDICATIVE OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. 12Z GFS AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE 
HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD...AND WILL  TREND ZONE POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...TO 
SCATTERED...COMPARED TO EARLIER FCST. GFS MOS HAS INCREASED RAIN 
CHANCES A BIT ON MON AS IT PICKS UP ON JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF 
TEXAS AND ACROSS TOP OF RIDGE INDUCING SOME WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL 
VELOCITY ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH RETREATING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY TO SEE HOW LATER RUNS 
HANDLE FEATURES.  STILL SOME HINT OF UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE 
CAROLINAS EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY FORCE SOME DRIER AIR SWD TO CENTRAL 
GULF COAST HOWEVER GFS HAS SEEMED TO BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION 
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER 
AREA...CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL 
POPS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EJECTING FROM W COAST MEAN TROUGH 
POSITION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DAMPEN RIDGE AND ALLOW A FRONT 
TO REACH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH FOR DAY SEVEN 
FORECAST.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MCB 68 84 68 84 / 50 40 20 40
BTR 71 85 70 85 / 40 40 20 30
MSY 73 86 74 86 / 30 30 10 30
GPT 72 83 72 84 / 30 30 10 30
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

21/18