000
FXHW60 PHFO 221340
AFDHFO

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
4 AM HST FRI OCT 22 2004

.SYNOPSIS..TODAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY ONE FOR MOST ISLANDS. TRADE 
 WINDS WILL BE RETURNING A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT WILL
 BE GIVING WAY TO WEAK WINDS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AFTER THE
 WEEK END...SOME OF THESE MAY BE SOAKERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE FAMILIAR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
 STILL POSITIONED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE KEEPING HAWAII IN 
 ITS LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND BELT. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
 THAT ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLIER IN THE WEEK
 WILL BE RETURNING TOWARD THE ISLANDS AFTER THE WEEK END. ALTHOUGH 
 NOT PARTICULARLY A VERY DEEP LOW IT IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY 
 STRONGER THAN BEFORE...STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN OUR CURRENT TRADE WINDS
 TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLIES DOWN AT THE SURFACE BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD 
 SET UP A CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOWS INSTABILITY PROMPTING SOME
 LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
 WEEK. THESE NOT SO DEEP EARLY SEASON UPPER LOWS TEND NOT TO LAST
 VERY LONG AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS PUNCH AROUND NEXT THURSDAY
 WHEN TRADE WINDS AGAIN BEGIN TO RETURN.
  
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MATSUDA