000 
FXUS62 KMLB 021415
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

***UPDATE*** THIS IS A QUICK HEADS UP TO USERS THAT AS OF 11AM...A 
HURRICANE WARNING WILL BE UP FOR THE ENTIRE MELBOUNE CWA COAST... 
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET (AND POINTS SOUTH)...
AS WELL AS AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF 
OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM OKEECHOBEE NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE AND 
INTERIOR COLUSIA. 

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...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING STEADILY TOWARD FLORIDA...

DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF SEVERE 
HURRICANE FRANCES WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS. DEEP NE FLOW AND SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING AHEAD OF THE 
HURRICANE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY MOVING 
ONSHORE TODAY/TONIGHT WITH ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING 
STORMS EXPECTED INLAND. OVERALL...COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW 
NORMAL...AVERAGING NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. 

***EXCERPTED FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FORECASTING A SPECIFIC LOCATION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL *STILL* 
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND EMPHASIS SOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE 
PROJECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. FRANCES WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE: 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE THAN 50,000 
SQUARE MILES ...THUS PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE 
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A *DIRECT* HIT FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE.

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS 
PLANS. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING 
...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE 
COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN & WIND WILL INCREASE 
FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY. 
AS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS 
TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE GUSTS EXPERIENCED 
SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DAMAGING WINDS... 
FLOODING RAINS...AND STORM SURGE. 

NHC ADVISORIES AND NWS MELBOURNE FORECASTS AND HURRICANE LOCAL 
STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BETTER DEFINE EXPECTED IMPACTS TO EAST 
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. NOTE THAT WIND FORECASTS 
REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO 
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES. AS HURRICANE IMPACTS MOVE 
TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASED 
SIGNIFICANTLY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS AS OFFSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW 
IN THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. PLAN TO BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO, AND MENTION
WIND AND SWELL SEPARATELY...SINCE WIND WAVES ARE ONLY ABOUT 3 FEET.
OBVIOUSLY IN LATER PERIODS...DISTINCTION WILL NOT NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     HURRICANE WARNING FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
     INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR INTERIOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...
     SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM...CRISTALDI
HURRICANE STATEMENTS...HAGEMEYER