000 
FXUS64 KFWD 021627 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

.UPDATE FOR PUBLIC...
HAVE UPDATED PACKAGE MAINLY TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW AND ADJUST DEW POINT AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AS NEW DATA 
SUGGEST THAT PARTS OF THE METROPLEX WILL JUST MEET HEAT ADVISORY 
CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW POPS STILL LOOK 
REASONABLE...ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. 

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SCATTERED EARLY MORNING VISIBILITIES 3-5SM BR ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF 
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE 
TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY AND MAINLY OFF SHORE OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE FLOW 
(GENERALLY 9KTS OR LESS) WILL VARY FROM S-SW THIS MORNING... SELY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE S-SW AFTER 06Z 
TONIGHT.  75
&&

.DISCUSSION...
415 AM.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK... 
STARTING WITH HEAT...AND ENDING WITH A COOL FRONT AND POSSIBLY SOME 
RAINFALL. 

THE CENTRAL...INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST 
WEATHER...MAINLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING MID- AND UPPER- 
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE SUN AND SUBSIDENCE NEEDED TO PRODUCE SOME 
LOWER 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL 
ACCENTUATE THE HEAT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE 
NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY ALONG PORTIONS OF 
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ONE YET...BECAUSE OF EXPECTED 
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 75 TO 77 RANGE. HOWEVER...UPPER 70S 
COULD WORK INTO THE MIX BY TUESDAY...AND IF SO...AN ADVISORY WOULD 
BE NEEDED.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TWO-CELLED...MID-LEVEL RIDGE (ONE CELL OVER 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER OVER THE DODGE CITY KS AREA 
OVERNIGHT) WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA...AS TROUGHS 
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO THE WEST AND EAST COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW 
A COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS...PROBABLY BY LATE THURSDAY. 
WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER EUROPEAN MODEL...AND HAVE GONE 
FOR A GRADUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...AND 
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN 
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST...WITH THE POPS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH 
WITH TIME FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE EURO MODELS FRONT BECOMES 
ORIENTED MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS HAVE OUR 
LOW END POPS. PROBLEMS WITH MASS FIELDS AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN 
THE GFS IS WHY WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.  

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THUS THE LOW POPS. HOWEVER...I AM 
IMPRESSED BY THE 500 MB CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE EURO MODEL LATE IN 
THE WEEKEND ACROSS TEXAS. SUCH A PATTERN...IF REAL..COULD ADD TO THE 
PRECIP POTENTIAL ON DAYS 6 AND 7.   ONE FINAL NOTE: THE DFW FORECAST 
POINT IS A BIT HOTTER THAN EVERYONE ELSE...THUS THE PROJECTED POINT 
LOW TEMP OF 78. I DONT THINK OTHER OBSERVING STATIONS WILL HAVE 
UPPER 70S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 
TXZ118>119.

&&

$$