000 
FXUS64 KTSA 070816
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
315 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS OK SERVING AS FOCUS FOR 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH THE GREATEST 
CONCENTRATION REMAINING TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BETTER 
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOSE DEFINITION 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST INDUCE BROAD FETCH 
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THAT SAID...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO 
CAP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FEEL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS 
REGARDING EFFECTS OF DECAYING/RETREATING BOUNDARY TO INTRODUCE LOW 
POPS AREAWIDE.  SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT 
INSTABILITY...AND ENOUGH SHEAR ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROUGH TO 
PROMOTE WEAK ORGANIZATION AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT WITH 
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN BEST FORCING/ELEVATED INSTABILITY 
ZONE.  THIS TRACK MAY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER CHANCES ACROSS 
FAR NE OK/NW AR ARE WARRANTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL 
WITH THIS COMPLEX.  SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY AS SURFACE 
HIGH SLOW TO DEPART...AND BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY GIVEN 
EXPECTED SURFACE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE 
ANTICIPATED BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO 
ANY DEPARTING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.  WARMING TREND BEGINS AND 
RETURNING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HUMID AFTERNOONS AND WARMER 
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH TO 
PINCH OFF AND RETROGRADE BENEATH BUILDING CENTRAL U.S. 
RIDGE...HOWEVER STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE HIGHLY 
UNCERTAIN.  ETA IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE AND DROPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS 
VALUES INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER CHOSE TO SIDE MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET 
SOLUTION AND TEMPERED GUIDANCE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OWING TO POTENTIAL 
CLOUD COVER.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST THOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON 
TERRAIN FAVORING THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MUCH THE SAME STORY HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE 
FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING REMNANT UPPER LOW BEING 
THE ONLY HOPE FOR COOLER TEMPS/PRECIP CHANCES.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    89   74   91   76 /  20   20   20    5 
FSM    89   72   93   73 /  20   20   20    5 
MLC    90   73   91   75 /  30   10   10    5 
BVO    88   71   91   72 /  20   20   20    5 
FYV    84   69   88   69 /  20   30   30    5 
BYV    83   69   86   71 /  20   40   30    5 
MKO    88   72   90   71 /  20   20   20    5 
MIO    86   71   90   73 /  20   30   20    5 
F10    90   74   91   74 /  30   10   10    5 
HHW    90   74   90   74 /  30   10   10    5 

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
$$