659 
FXUS63 KGLD 162010
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE IN THE FIRST TWO 
DAYS...WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND A WIND ADVISORY TODAY...AND FRONTAL 
PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE 
THIS FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND MEANDER BACK AND 
FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH A 
TROF DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKIES AND KICKING OUT DISTURBANCES WHICH 
SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN 
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE POOLING AND MOVING WESTWARD ALONG AND NORTH 
OF THE STALLED FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE MONDAY 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...SPENT LITTLE TIME ADJUSTING 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY...AND CONCENTRATED ON SHORT TERM. 

SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 
EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IS SET 
UP WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH WESTERN 
NEBRASKA...INTERSECTING A DRYLINE NEAR OGALLALA. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS 
TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAMAR...THEN FIRMS UP OVER THE TEXAS/NEW 
MEXICO BORDER. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS RESPONSIBLE 
FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...AND THE WINDS WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL LATE 
THIS EVENING WITH THE LLJ AXIS MOVES EAST. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN 
FEATURES FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER 
SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT 
TIME CATCHING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED FEATURES...NOT 
TO MENTION THEIR AFFECT ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THEREFORE...RELIED 
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. 

SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT. 
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE 
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. QUESTION IS THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF 
CONVECTION. ONE UPPER WAVE IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. 
STORMS ARE FIRING IN THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE SUN HAS PEAKED 
OUT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THICK CIRRUS HAS CUT DOWN 
ON INSTABILITY FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS FIRST WAVE IS TIMED TO BE 
OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT A SECOND WAVE IS FAST ON ITS 
HEELS.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WILL 
BE SOUTH OF TRIBUNE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER NEAR THE STATIONARY 
SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE MOST HEATING AND 
EARLIEST FORCING WITH THE SECOND UPPER WAVE. OTHER STORMS MAY ROLL 
OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST 
NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...COULD NOT RULE OUT PRECIP 
ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING STATIONARY OR EVEN 
RETREATING THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPS TOMORROW...THEN THE FIRST 
CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 
02Z FOR THOMAS...NORTON...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND GOVE.
NE...NONE. TORNADO WATCH FOR DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.
CO...NONE.

&&

$$

BURKE