003 
FXUS63 KFGF 121419 AAA
AFDFAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
920 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

DISCUSSION...WILL SCALE BACK QUITE A BIT IN PRECIPITATION TODAY 
EXCEPT PROBABLY IN NORTHEAST ND. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL UNDERGO QUITE 
A BIT OF DRYING...ALREADY UNDERWAY. AFTERNOON MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL 
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S FOR GFK AND MID 40S
NEAR FFM THE MONSTER INVERSION CAP WILL PREVENT DEEPER CONVECTION. 
WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM REMAINING AREA. SO WILL KEEP NO MORE THAN 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EVEN IF THE CLOUDS DO PARTIALLY BREAK WHICH 
THEY ARE TRYING TO DO IN SD CURRENTLY WITH VERY DRY MID-LAYER AIR 
APPROACHING THERE. IN NORTHEAST ND PRECIPITATION IS BORDERLINE 
BETWEEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AT MOST PLACES. IT IS STILL RATHER 
WARM ABOVE 850 MB SO SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY WHERE CONVECTION 
IS SHALLOWER THAN THAT. TEMPERATURES LOOK OK AS SIGNIFICANT COLD 
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WHILE OUR NORTH AND 
NORTHWEST WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH ONLY MORE OF THE SAME TO ADVECT 
IN. SHORTWAVE WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN NORTHWEST SD WILL TRACK 
NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOP SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ND. GFS SHOWS THE
BEST HANDLE HERE AND IT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL 
FEATURES INCLUDING THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL. NO CHANGE TO THE WINTER 
WX ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS WELL WORDED ATTM. WILL UPDATE SOME FLOOD 
WARNINGS SINCE THE RAIN IS MOSTLY DONE.
----------------------------------------------------------------  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES/RELATED PCPN AND 
TEMPERATURES.

LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO AREAS THAT 
HAVE NOT HAD HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY 
ADDITIONAL FLOOD HEADLINES. 

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINDER OF DAY WILL BE PCPN COVERAGE AND PHASE OVER 
NW FA. MID LEVEL WAVE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT 
NE THROUGH FA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD WEAKENING WITH WARMING TOPS. 
AS WAVE AND SURFACE LOW RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY 
SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS WHICH ARE DOING 
PRETTY GOOD JOB IN EARLY GOING LIFTING BRUNT OF PCPN THROUGH FA 
AROUND 18Z. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL FALL 
OVER FAR NW FA DURING FIRST HALF OF DAY. ALREADY MESSY IN THIS AREA 
WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR 
ADDITIONAL MIXED PCPN AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION DURING DAY WILL 
CONTINUE WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY 
HOWEVER VERTICAL ORIENTATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING ANY STRONGER 
WINDS DOWN SO WILL JUST BE WINDY AND NOT PLANNING ANY WIND 
HEADLINES. BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL BUT FAR EAST AND WITH STRONG COLD 
ADVECTION MOST AREAS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY WITH VERY 
LITTLE RECOVERY DURING DAY. WITH DEGREE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING 
-RA/SN MIX ACROSS ALL BUT FAR EAST. 

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATE AND WITH WAVE LIFTING OUT WILL 
ONLY MAINTAIN POPS INTO EVENING...AGAIN WITH COLD COLUMN WILL BE MIX 
POTENTIAL. 

NEXT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF MAIN TROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL QPF REAL CLOSE 
TO EASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME WILL ADJUST PCPN CHANCES TO THIS 
AREA WITH REMAINDER UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE 
CONCERNED ABOUT SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES 
UNDER COLD POOL FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL. AT ANY RATE WELL BELOW AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM ABOVE. 

RIDGING REMAINS OVER FA ON FRIDAY. WITH DRYING COLUMN AND MODEST 
WARM ADVECTION AND SOLAR POTENTIAL SHOULD SEE BETTER TEMPERATURE 
RECOVERY. 

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO LONG TERM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR 
EDDY...BENSON...RAMSEY...WALSH...TOWNER...NELSON...CAVALIER AND 
PEMBINA COUNTIES. 
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ROSEAU AND MARSHALL COUNTIES TODAY.

&&

$$
GV/VOELKER