520 
FXUS65 KVEF 130332
AFDLAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
732 PM PST FRI MAR 12 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT 
PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO 
IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND MILD 
CONDITIONS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE 
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. 
WILL UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY TO REFLECT THIS. MAY ALSO TWEAK CLOUD 
COVER IN A FEW ZONES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM PST FRI MAR 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NV THIS 
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING 
HOURS. 18Z GFS MODEL EVEN MORE BULLISH SPITTING OUT PRECIPITATION 
WITH THIS FEATURE AND STILL LOOKS OVERDONE. 18Z MESO-ETA IS DRY AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED EARLY 
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER HIGH 
WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE CA COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND 
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. 

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP RIDGING OVER THE 
PACIFIC SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER WITH THE HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. LATEST RUNS OF THE EURO AND 
GFS ARE ALSO WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF 
THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY ALSO KEEP MOST 
OF THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH OVER CANADA. 12Z GFS NOW KEEPS WEAK 
RIDGING INTACT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD 
INTO WESTERN CANADA...INSTEAD OF THE PACNW. OPERATIONAL MEX MOS WAS 
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HOWEVER 
KEPT FORECAST TEMPS NEAR MEX NUMBERS DUE TO HIGHER HEIGHTS ON BOTH 
THE EURO AND 12Z GFS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED 
AT KLAS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN