959 
FXUS63 KILX 091506
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
905 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PROGRESSING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED THIS MORNING. LIGHT 
RAIN/SNOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. SOME LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDS ARE COMING 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS AND THESE WILL AFFECT THE 
CHAMPAIGN AND MATTOON AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT 
THIS CLOUD MASS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SOME BREAKS IN IT. EXPECT SOME 
ADDITIONAL CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SUN GETS A 
CHANCE TO WORK ON THE LEFT-OVER MOISTURE. BUFR SOUNDINGS OFF THE ETA 
ALSO SUGGEST CU DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE...BUT SOME SUN WILL STILL PEEK 
THROUGH.

MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS GIVING MIXED SIGNALS...WITH 
THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING TEMPS STUGGLING TO REACH 40. THE LATEST 
RUC AND ETA...HOWEVER...SHOW MAXES REACHING THE MIDDLE 40S WHICH IS 
A TAD WARMER THAN THE GOING FORECAST. THE 15Z OBSERVED TEMPERATURES 
ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS. 
WILL THEREFORE BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO CONSIDERING AT 
LEAST A LITTLE HELP FROM INSOLATION. 

UPDATES COMING OUT SHORTLY FOR CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND MAX 
TEMPERATURES.

$$

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL ALOT OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE MODELS 
WITH CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ETA IS A LITTLE TOO SLOW WITH 
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS BEEN 
VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS...IT WAS RIGHT ON 
THE MONEY ON HANDLING CURRENT SYSTEM IN A RAPID NORTHWEST FLOW AND 
WILL FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY...WHILE ETA DID NOT COME ON BOARD WITH IT 
UNTIL LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LAST NIGHT/S SYSTEM TODAY...WITH SOME 
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES. WAITING TIL CLOSER TO ZONE 
ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE WHERE TO MENTION FLURRIES/LIGHT 
SNOW/SPRINKLES FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS 
TODAY...WITH LINGERING SC ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM AND DECENT 
CAA...WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH NEXT SYSTEM ON THE HEELS 
OF THIS ONE...WILL STILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
AS LOW STUFF MOVES OUT TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO 
THE REGION. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A BRIEF WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 
THIS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN BY THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN 
PCPN SPREADS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR PCPN 
TYPE...LIGHT RAIN TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTHERN 
PORTIONS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. CENTRAL 
SECTIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHERN 
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN ALL LIGHT RAIN. AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION ON 
THURSDAY...WILL SEE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND 
NORTH OF I-74 CORRIDOR AS LAST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH 
THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AS FOR REST OF FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED 
FORECAST. WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY. DID 
SLOW DOWN TIMING OF PCPN ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS 
AFFECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING AND REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
WILL STILL SEE PCPN CHANGE OVER TO A MIX ON SUNDAY...THEN TO LIGHT 
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
BYRD/04