AFOS product AFDPQR
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPQR
Product Timestamp: 2003-11-28 10:30 UTC

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FXUS66 KPQR 281034
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP PACIFIC LOW WAS NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND INTO CANADA AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOIST COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND GIVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THE NEAR 990 MB LOW WAS APPROACHING NORTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND AND EAST THROUGH CANADA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO COME UP AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND CURRENT
STORM WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING STILL LOOK GOOD. MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 KT AND 850 MB WINDS NEAR 70 KT. MOISTURE
WAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BUT
CEILINGS ARE QUITE HIGH INLAND WITH ONLY SOME SPRINKLES SO FAR.
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE SOLID RAIN AND HAVE SLOWED
DOWN IN THE GRIDS. THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT
AND HAVE ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE DECREASE IN RAIN TONIGHT. BEST RAINFALL
PERIOD INLAND LOOKS TO BE 18Z TODAY TO 06Z TONIGHT. WILL ALSO EXTEND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING THE CENTRAL COAST UNTIL LATE TODAY.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY AT TAIL OF THE FRONT. THIS LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES. MODELS SHOW FRONTAL SYSTEMS
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS
TO JUST ABOVE 40 KT. WILL CONTINUE THE STORM WARNING THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH IT COULD BE MARGINAL. NEW WAVE WATCH III SUGGESTS WE MIGHT
FALL SHY OF HIGH SURF BUT WILL NOT CHANGE NOW. TOLLESON
&&

PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST +7111  PDX +8111  SLE 99311  EUG 89421
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OR/WA...STORM WARNING TODAY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
         HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND
          SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY.
&&
$$