000 
FPUS51 KPHI 152001
ZFPPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2003

DISC: GRADIENT REMAINS NOTICEABLE ACROSS NRN TIER COUNTIES BUT FINALLY
RELAXING OVER THE SRN SCTIONS. WINDS PAST FEW DAYS WERE VERY IMPRESS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT 2 MIN- WIND SPEED OF 46 MPH ON 13TH A RECORD
FOR PHL INTL...WAS 40 MPH ON NOV28/1996. KEEP IN MIND PERIOD OF RCD FOR
THIS DETAILED WIND ONLY 7 YEARS. 

AIR IS VERY DRY SO BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN TEMPS WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY 
AFTER SUNDOWN AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR. RAD COOLING PERIOD SHORT 
LIVED AS CLOUDS MOVE IN PAST MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS LEVEL OFF. AREA OF LIGHT 
PCPN PSBLY SKIRTING BY TO N BY MORNING. QUESTION IS IF IT IS COLD ENOUGH 
THERE MAY BE SOME -ZL. ON THE OTHER HAND LOW LAYERS MAY WARM UP TO GIVE 
US -L. BLYR RH MOIST AS IS 80H(THNX BGM) AND AGREE CLDS HEADED OUR WAY 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MAIN AREA OF PCPN UNDERCUTTING THE DELMARA
REGION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE E-SE ON FAST W-E AND BUILDING RIDGE OVER 
OHIO VALLEY. 

FOR THE EXTND: ANOTHER POTENT LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUES AND
WED. 12Z GFS SHOWS NEGATIVE TILT AT 500MB AS WELL AS PLENTY OF PVA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. 250MB SHOWS JET STREAK OF 130 KTS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT. AS IF THATS NOT BAD ENOUGH 850MB WINDS ARE IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS OVER EASTERN PA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH LIS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS STILL THINKING CHANCE OF TSTORMS WITH
THE SYSTEM. AS SEEN IN PAST EVENTS, LIS WERE TYPICALLY POSITIVE AS SURFACE 
BASED INSTABILITY WAS LOW. HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE ANOTHER
STORY AS OVERALL FORCING IS STRONG. GFS SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT
850 MB AHEAD OF AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT, SUGGESTING DECENT LINEAR FORCING 
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. DECENT THETA-E RIDGE ALSO ADVECTS INTO THE CWA 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS GFS QPF SHOWS 
OVER AN INCH OF PRECIP. THIS EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THEREFORE WILL 
WATCH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM CLOSELY. 

ON THE MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS LAYING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON SO SCA DISC
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF LITTLE EGG INLET. 

MPO   33  46  33  50 /  10  10  30  30
ABE   36  52  36  53 /  10  10  30  30
RDG   36  51  36  53 /  10  10  30  30
PHL   41  55  43  56 /   0  10  30  30
12N   35  51  35  52 /  10  10  30  30
SMQ   35  53  38  54 /   0  10  30  30
TTN   39  52  39  53 /   0  10  30  30
MIV   34  53  37  57 /   0  10  30  30
ACY   44  53  42  56 /   0  10  30  30
ILG   39  56  42  57 /   0  10  30  30
DOV   39  55  39  56 /   0  10  30  30
GED   38  56  38  57 /   0  10  30  30
ESN   37  56  42  56 /   0  10  30  30

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES......
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.
NJ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET
     NJ(ANZ450>451). 
PA...NONE.
$$


FRUGIS/GORSE/EBERWINE