000 
FXUS66 KPQR 111040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING...DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRYING TONIGHT AND WED WITH SOME OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE NEXT STRETCHING AND SPLITTING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT. A
SERIES OF STRONGER PACIFIC FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE LOOPER SHOWS THE MAIN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING ONTO THE COAST...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EVIDENT UPSTREAM TO
CONTINUE MAINLY OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
THE CASCADE SNOW ADVISORY THIS MORNING NORTH OF MT JEFFERSON AS RAWS
SITES CURRENTLY VERIFYING THE HEFTY MESO ETA QPF AMOUNTS... ALTHOUGH
MESO ETA SHOWS A LIGHTER QPF AFTER SUNRISE WHICH CONTINUES TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE 6000 FT WE SHOULD HAVE PICKED UP A
NICE SNOW PACK OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ONLY ADVISORY AMOUNTS
AT BEST NEAR THE PASSES WITH A FAIRLY MILD AIR MASS.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WEAKENS...THEN BECOMING DRY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INLAND
TURNING THE FLOW BELOW 850 MB WEAKLY OFFSHORE. WED AND THU WILL HAVE
SOME EAST WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS AFTER
AREAS OF MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.
&&

.MARINE...WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND THIS MORNING...THEN
FOR SEAS NEAR 10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

LONG TERM...HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL TRENDS ON SLOWING THE SPLITTING AND
STRETCHING FRONT TO FRI NIGHT AS GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
ECMWF GUIDANCE. THEN THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEMS
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILLIS
&&

PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 72100  PDX 72-00  SLE 72100  EUG 72100
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT CAPE SHOALWATER TO
         FLORENCE.
.WA......SNOW ADVISORY SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGH THIS MORNING
         ABOVE 4500 FEET.
.OR......SNOW ADVISORY NORTH OREGON CASCADES THROUGH THIS MORNING
         NORTH OF MT JEFFERSON AND ABOVE 5000 FEET.
&&

$$