National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDPQR
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDPQR
Product Timestamp: 2003-11-06 16:30 UTC
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000 FXUS66 KPQR 061650 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 830 AM PST THU NOV 6 2003 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPIN MOST OF ITS WEATHER INTO CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE E OF THE CASCADES FOR OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A DRIER PATTERN BUT THE UPPER LOW MAY ROTATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP NORTH INTO OREGON. THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY START AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...REX TYPE HI/LO BLOCK CONTINUES TODAY WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BLOCK...AND THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME SPILL OVER ACROSS THE CASCADES WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON THE EAST SLOPES. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF CALIF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND THE MAIN ENERGY OF THAT WEATHER SYSTEM INLAND WELL TO THE OUGHT BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD TONIGHT HOWEVER...NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW DUE TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DID DEVELOP WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. LOOKS DRY IN THE NORTH SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED TO 8.7 MILLIBARS FROM THE DALLES TO ASTORIA AND 14.3 MILLIBARS FROM NORTH BEND TO SPOKANE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SPREADING THROUGH GAPS AND OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WILLSON && LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE RESULTING EFFECTS OF THIS CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE A DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS WILL STAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A FLAT RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH. HOWEVER...IN THIS PATTERN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS. && PRELIMINARY POINT POPS... AST 01111 PDX 01122 SLE 01233 EUG 11333 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE. && $$