AFOS product AFDPQR
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPQR
Product Timestamp: 2003-11-06 16:30 UTC

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FXUS66 KPQR 061650
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST THU NOV 6 2003

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPIN MOST OF ITS WEATHER INTO CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE E OF THE
CASCADES FOR OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA IN A DRIER PATTERN BUT THE UPPER LOW MAY ROTATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH INTO OREGON. THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
IN THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
MAY START AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...REX TYPE HI/LO BLOCK CONTINUES TODAY WITH SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE BLOCK...AND THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME SPILL OVER ACROSS THE CASCADES WHERE
EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON THE EAST SLOPES. THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF CALIF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND THE MAIN ENERGY OF
THAT WEATHER SYSTEM INLAND WELL TO THE OUGHT BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD TONIGHT HOWEVER...NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DID DEVELOP WOULD BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. LOOKS DRY IN THE NORTH SUNDAY AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED TO 8.7
MILLIBARS FROM THE DALLES TO ASTORIA AND 14.3 MILLIBARS FROM NORTH
BEND TO SPOKANE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SPREADING THROUGH GAPS AND OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WILLSON

&&

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE RESULTING EFFECTS OF
THIS CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE A DRY
DAY ON MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THUS WILL STAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A
FLAT RIDGE TO HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH. HOWEVER...IN THIS PATTERN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS.

&&
 
PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 01111  PDX 01122  SLE 01233  EUG 11333
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
&&

$$