AFOS product AFDTUL
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTUL
Product Timestamp: 2003-11-03 16:15 UTC

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000 
FXUS64 KTSA 031621
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1015 AM CST MON NOV 3 2003

DISC...
FEWER CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER 1000-925 THICKNESS. AT 10 AM
TEMPS IN MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BUMP /
BOOST / JACK /INCREMENT (PICK YOUR FAVORITE
TERM) MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.  THAT PUTS
FSM RIGHT AT RECORD LEVEL 84 DEGREES (1916).  
ETA HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP WITH GFS FRONT
POSITION FOR TUESDAY. LATEST 12Z ETA IN SYNC
POP RAISED FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS.                
GW

============================================       
PREV DISC...
STRONG COLD FRONT AS NEAR AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH 
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNSEASONABLY MILD.  00Z 
UPPER AIR DATA AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT MODEL 
INITIALIZATIONS OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE 
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.  THIS WAVE WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR 
UPCOMING WEATHER CHANGES.

WHILE CURRENT COLD FRONT POSITION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS 
REALIZE...PRESSURE ARE BEGINNING TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE 
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD 24HRS WITH CONTINUED MOIST 
ADVECTION/CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO CARRIED AWAY.  
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEST COAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE NEEDED PUSH TO DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT 
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY.  TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BEHIND FRONTAL 
PASSAGE.  STOCKPILE OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT WITH GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING FAVORING FAR NE OK/WESTERN AR 
FOR PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  LARGEST DEVIATION FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS
WAS MADE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE OFTEN 
UNDERESTIMATED.

COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY WEDNESDAY WITH 
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THURSDAY.  MUCH COOLER 
TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE WITHIN THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS.  ABUNDANT 
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC WARM ADVECTION INDUCED RAINS WILL HELP 
ENSURE THIS AIRMASS MODIFIES LITTLE KEEPING TEMPS AT OR BELOW 
SEASONAL NORMALS.


PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    83   67   76   42 /  10   10   70   50 
FSM    84   61   84   54 /   5    5   20   80 
MLC    82   66   81   48 /   5    5   30   70 
BVO    82   64   72   38 /  10   10   70   30 
FYV    79   60   76   45 /   5    5   20   80 
BYV    77   59   79   42 /   5    5   20   80 
MKO    83   64   81   48 /   5    5   40   80 
MIO    82   64   74   40 /  10   10   70   70 
F10    82   65   78   46 /   5    5   50   70 
HHW    83   64   82   57 /   5    5   20   70 


FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
$$