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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Product Timestamp: 2003-11-01 20:20 UTC
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000 FXUS64 KMAF 012020 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 220 PM CST SAT NOV 1 2003 .SHORT TERM... LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6KM WILL REMAIN STRONG. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH ALSO...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 20% POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A ANDREWS TO FORT STOCKTON TO DRYDEN LINE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ANY DECENT LIFT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. && .LONG TERM... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS KANSAS. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE ASSOCIATED SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASED THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...VERY MINOR SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...AM NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE LEFT 10 PCT POPS RUNNING IN THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE...THERMAL RIDGING BRINGING WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...AND MINOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST. DID TRIM POPS TO INCLUDE ONLY THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH/DRYLINE MAY BE LOCATED A BIT FURTHER EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS SHOW CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE MAY BE A BIT MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS...SO DID UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SOME DISCREPANCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGINS BY THURSDAY AS THE GFS EJECTS THE NORTHWESTERN MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH BROADER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR BRINGING THE COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTH BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS CLIMOTOLOGICAL NORMALS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A FURTHER SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MAF 64 80 63 82 / 20 10 10 10 CNM 62 82 58 81 / 0 5 5 5 MRF 52 79 50 78 / 0 5 5 5 FST 65 83 62 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 06/21