000 
FXUS62 KJAX 101849
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003

CURRENT...DOUBLE SHORTWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE E 1/3 OF THE 
U.S. WITH 1ST SHORTWAVE OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE 
IS NOW OVER THE W OH VALLEY. MID-ATLC SHORT WAVE STILL APPEARS TO BE 
THE STRONGEST OF THE 2. MOST OF THE PRECIP CURRENTLY IN THE N GOMEX 
AND FL PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE PRODUCED BY A COMBINATION OF A WK SHEAR 
AXIS ALOFT FROM THE TROF AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE 
ALONG A BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS HAVE YET TO REALIZED OVER W AREAS...AS 
MOST OF PRECIP FALLING APART BEFORE MAKING IT INTO AREA. ONLY VERY 
LIGHT RAIN OVER EXTREME SW AREAS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL.

PUBLIC...MODELS ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY...AT LEAST AT THE 
500 MB LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE SFC FEATURES ARE STILL POSING A PROBLEM 
WITH PRECIP FIELD POSITION AND INTENSITY. GFS STILL DEVELOPING A 
RATHER STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NW GOMEX. ETA NOW DEVELOPING EITHER A 
FRONTAL WAVE OR WEAKER LOW IN NEARLY THE SAME POSITION. HOWEVER... 
GFS MOVES THIS FEATURE ON A MORE S TRACK THAN THE ETA...WITH BULK OF 
PRECIP OVER S PORTION OF THE AREA. ETA SLOWER AT FIRST WITH THIS 
LOW. BELIEVE THE MAIN REASON THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW IS 
BECAUSE OF A BIT DEEPER 500 MB TROF. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL HAPPEN 
SINCE MUCH OF THE ENERGY IN THE E TROF IS STILL TIED UP IN 1ST SHORT 
WAVE. HOWEVER...THINK MOVEMENT OF LOW WILL BE IN LINE WITH GFS...AND 
PRECIP FIELD LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE. SO...WITH MUCH 
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FOLLOW GFS AND ASSUME WEAKER SFC LOW...SLIGHTLY 
SMALLER PRECIP FIELD AND LOWER QPFS. THIS FALLS IN LINE REASONABLY 
WELL WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

EXTENDED...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS AS TO ACTUAL SPEED OF EXITING LOW AND 
OTHER FACTORS. SO...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO ONGOING 
EXTENDED FCST. HAVE NOTED GFS MOS NOW PUSHING MOST OF THE COOLING 
INTO MID-WEEK...BUT HAVE ONLY MADE MODEST CHANGES BASED ON THE 
UNCERTAINTY.

MARINE...SWELLS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WITH WEAKER SFC LOW 
EXPECTED...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS. 

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 78 63 81 / 50 40 30 10 
SSI 67 78 68 78 / 40 60 40 20 
JAX 69 79 69 80 / 40 60 50 20 
SGJ 71 80 73 80 / 40 70 70 30 
GNV 69 80 69 82 / 60 70 60 20 
OCF 70 80 71 84 / 50 70 70 20 

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$

CARROLL/CAMP