000 
FXUS62 KJAX 151829
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND WINDS N-NE AROUND 10 MPH.  WEAKENING FRONT TO THE
WEST AND EAST COAST SEABREEZE FRONT NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS AREA REMAINS IN A DRY N-NE FLOW THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH NHC TRACKING ISABEL TO PASS BY OUR AREA WELL OFFSHORE.
LOTS OF DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO DONT EXPECT
ANY POPS EXCEPT FOR OVER WATERS AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTLINE DUE
TO CONVERGENCE FROM INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AOB NORMAL ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INLAND WITH N FLOW BRINGING
LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA AND STALLS
BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST...WL KEEP SPLIT
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE MAINLY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF OFFSHORE A LTL CLOSER
TO ISABEL AND WL LKLY SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE N...AS
THE STORM PASSES TO THE E OF THE CWF...AND NEARSHORE WATERS WL LKLY
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...SPCLY AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE OFSHR IN LATER PERIODS. WL ISSUE A MWS FOR INCREASING
SWELLS FROM ISABEL...ALTHOUGH BUOY REPORTS AND SURF HEIGHTS HAVE
REMAINED STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT WL ADVERTISE HIGHER
DISPERSION VALUES OF 75 OR MORE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
PLACE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE 4TH PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 88 65 87 / 00 10 00 10
SSI 70 84 68 84 / 00 10 00 10
JAX 69 86 70 85 / 10 10 00 10
SGJ 72 84 73 84 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 68 88 68 88 / 10 10 00 10
OCF 68 88 68 88 / 10 10 00 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SCA AMZ450...470.
GA...SCA AMZ435...452...472...454...474.

$$

MZ/JH