National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDPQR
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDPQR
Product Timestamp: 2003-09-04 16:00 UTC
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000 FXUS66 KPQR 041600 AFDPQR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 900 AM PDT THU SEP 4 2003 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT FLATTENS AND DRIFTS EAST. A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOL SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING LATER NEXT WEEK. .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. MODELS STILL SHOW WEAK VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THAT MAY PROVIDE A WEAK TRIGGER BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS ALSO SEEN IN THE OAK RAOB. WITH MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST COVERAGE TO JUST THE OREGON CASCADES INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST RANGE BUT DROP THE VALLEYS. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM THREAT LESS FRIDAY AND WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHERN CASCADE CREST AREA. A LITTLE MORE MARINE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND NEW MESO IS PICKING UP ON THIS. MARINE LAYER BUILDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN SHOOTS INTO THE GAPS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN PUSH WAITS FOR THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS INLAND WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY. NO MARINE ADVISORIES. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... EXTENDED MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. SAT NIGHT AND SUN DEEP PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH. AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR SUN. COOL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT BY MIDWEEK UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF AREA BY WED...SO WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF POPS WED. TOLLESON AST 11001 PDX 01111 SLE 11111 EUG 11111 .PQR...NONE. $$