386 
FXUS66 KLOX 211556
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003

BIG UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL LIKELY STAY
THERE MOST OF THIS WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
HIGH OCCASIONALLY BRINGS IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SO
CAL, BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER WE HAVENT HAD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SMALL ROTATION IN THE CLOUDS
JUST NORTH OF YUMA THIS MORNING AND THE MESO ETA PICKS UP ON A VORT
MAX IN THAT VICINITY, HOWEVER IT WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST. ALSO, STABILITY INDICES ARE REALLY NOT
FAVORABLE IN OUR AREA TODAY AND MSTR IS STILL LIMITED. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING TODAY IN THE MTNS. 

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ETA
AND GFS REGARDING THE EASTERLY WAVE. THE 06Z GFS WAS STILL VERY STRONG
WITH IT WHILE THE ETA IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER, TO THE POINT WHERE THE
VORT IS HARDLY EVEN NOTICABLE. IN FACT, THE STABILITY INDICES ARE
ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW AS THEY ARE TODAY, THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING
THERE IS MORE MOISTURE ALOFT COMING IN. 850 DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY GO DOWN
IN OUR AREA TOMORROW ACCORDING TO THE MESO ETA SO THIS DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES. 

OVERALL, NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE FEATURE ON TUESDAY BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE IN THE
SMALL POPS FOR THE MTNS BUT THATS IT. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
AIRMASS GETS CONSIDERABLY WARMER TOMORROW WITH THICKNESSES JUST EAST
OF US AT 599 AND 950 TEMPS AT 44C. SO IF THE CLOUD FORECAST DOES NOT
PAN OUT, WE COULD BE WAY OFF ON OUR HIGHS TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.

WITH LESS CLOUDS WED, TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO MONDAYS LEVELS. AGAIN,
IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW RISK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONFINED TO THE
MTNS. MODELS STILL HINTING AT A BREAK DOWN OF THE STRONG HIGH OVER
NEVADA AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND
A FORECAST CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

LAX 000. WOFFORD

.LOX...NONE.

$$