483 
FXUS63 KLSX 160641
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
115 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2003

.DISCUSSION...
WK CDFNT HAS PUSHED SWD INTO SRN MO ATTM WITH SFC HI CNTRD OVR SRN 
MN NWRN IA BLDG INTO CWA BHND CDFNT.  SFC DWPTS HAVE DROPPED INTO 
THE LWR TO MID 60S OVR ALL BUT THE EXTRM SRN AND SERN PTNS OF THE 
CWA.  SFC HI WILL MOV SEWD TWDS THE OH VLY REGION WITH SFC WNDS 
VEERING ARND TO THE SE TGT ALBEIT LGT.  MDLS DEPICT RELATIVELY STG 
VORT MAX MOVG SEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS TDA OVERTOPPING SRN RCKYS 
MID-UPR LVL RDG.  SLIGHTLY MORE NRN TRACK OF VORT MAX PER ETA APRS 
MORE REASONABLE THAN AVN.  THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME MID-HI LVL 
CLOUDINESS TGT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN AS LOW LVLS TOO DRY.  
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TGT OVR NWRN MO WHERE SWLY LLJ WILL BRING 
INCRSG LOW LVL WAA AND THETA-E ADVCTN.  ETA MDL HAS SFC LEE CYCLONE 
FURTHER E THAN AVN AND HENCE QPF ALSO FURTHER E AS WELL FOR TGT.  
WILL MENTION A 20 PERCENT POP OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE CWA 
FOR TGT AND THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WKNG MCS MAKING IT INTO CWA 
LT TGT AND THU MRNG.  BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN FRI AND FRI NGT AS 
NEXT RELATIVELY STG NW FLOW SHRTWV DROPS SEWD THRU REGION WITH 
FRONTAL BNDRY AND ASSOCIATED WK SFC WV MOVG S-SEWD THRU REGION.  AVN 
MDL SUFFERING FM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH TOO STG OF A VORT 
CNTR AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LEADING TO TOO MUCH QPF OVR CWA FRI AFTN 
AND FRI NGT.  WKR ETA SOLUTION LIKELY MORE REASONABLE.

&&
 
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.

$$

GKS