001 
FXUS64 KMAF 031900
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BACKED ALL THE WAY INTO EDDY COUNTY THIS
MORNING...AND TOOK A WHILE GETTING STARTED ON MIXING BACK TO THE
EAST BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE AS DEWPOINT ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD STARTED FALLING AROUND 18Z.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.  MAY MENTION SEVERE...WILL MAKE THAT DECISION CLOSER TO
ISSUANCE TIME...DEPENDING ON MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF INITIATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUR COUNTIES WILL SEE
NO ACTIVITY AT ALL...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SINCE THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO WHERE THAT DID LAST NIGHT.  WINDS WILL
BE PICKING UP OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  MOISTURE MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE THESE WEST WINDS START PUSHING IT
BACK EAST AGAIN.

TOMORROW WILL BE WARM...DRY...WINDY...AND POSSIBLY DUSTY OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA.  ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING THAT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  ALONG WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
TERRELL COUNTY AND THE PRESIDIO VALLEY.  RH/S WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM OF
REACHING 15 PERCENT OR LESS...AND CONSIDERING THAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED TOMORROW FOR SOME OF THE PLAINS COUNTIES SUGGESTS THAT WINDS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 20 MPH OR GREATER.

THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH WARM WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING NEAR
90 OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AREAS.  MAY HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION NEXT SATURDAY AS A DECENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.  WILL NOT ADD IN ANY POPS AT
THIS TIME SINCE TIMING AND MOISTURE ARE STILL IN QUESTION.

PRELIMS...
MAF BB 063/092 057/090 056 000
CNM BB 062/091 055/087 055 000
MRF BB 053/083 049/081 050 000
FST BB 067/095 060/092 059 000

.MAF...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING TXZ 057-074-258.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.
  ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY ALL AREAS EXCEPT TXZ082.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
     NMZ 027>029-033-034.
  ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY ALL AREAS.

$$

SN