AFOS product AFDTUL
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC
Found 2 products at the given pil and timestamp. Scroll down to see them all.

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTUL
Product Timestamp: 2003-01-15 10:40 UTC

Download date range (UTC midnight)
Bulk Download
000 
FXUS64 KTSA 151044
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
440 AM CST WED JAN 15 2003

IMPENDING WINTER STORM STILL THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDINESS 
BEGINNING TO WORK BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL SEE A CLOUDY 
COOL DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 
TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY.

INTERESTING SCENARIO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
STORM SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH SO THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL 
WINTER STORM. STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS 
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG 
UPWARD MOTION SHOWN BY GFS MODEL. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION...QUITE 
POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...BREAK OUT RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY IN THE 
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN SPREAD INTO 
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. 

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIG PROBLEM. PARTIAL THICKNESS ARGUES 
AGAINST ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BUT STRONG LIFT AND CONVECTIVE 
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW A QUICKER CHANGEOVER. WILL MENTION 
A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE 
TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH EVERYTHING 
ELSE MENTIONED...WILL NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF 
TULSA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST 
AND 4 INCH SNOWS LOOK MOST LIKELY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT EVERYONE 
WILL SEE THIS MUCH SNOW BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT 
SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL.

LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TULSA AREA 
AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR A FEW COUNTIES WEST OF THE 
CURRENT WATCH.

QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS VALIDATES THIS THINKING WITH PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE 00Z RUN AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
RIGHT WHERE THE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED.

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL EXPIRE 
THE WATCH AT 10 AM THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH CLOUDS NOT CLEARING UNTIL AROUND 
SUNSET.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY TO RAISE 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN LOWER THEM TUESDAY AS 
A FULL BLOWN ARCTIC OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR HERE STARTING AT THAT TIME. 
THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALL MUCH FASTER THAN THE 
GFS AT BRINGING THIS COLD AIR INTO THE AREA SO WILL BITE ON THE COLD 
AIR ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR A 
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART BUT WENT A 
LITTLE COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND THURSDAY.

TUL  40  26  30  15 /  10  70  40   0
FSM  39  32  32  18 /   5  70  50   5
MLC  43  31  33  18 /   5  50  20   0
BVO  38  24  30  12 /  10  80  40   0
FYV  39  29  29  14 /   5  90  60   5
BYV  39  28  28  12 /   5  90  70  10
MIO  39  25  27  11 /  10  90  60   5
MKO  41  29  31  17 /   5  70  40   0
F10  42  28  31  17 /   5  60  30   0
HHW  42  35  35  21 /   5  30  20   0

FORECAST ID= 5

.TSA...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES 
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011.

OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES 
OKZ056>058...OKZ061>063...OKZ068>069.

PLATE
000 
FXUS64 KTSA 151043
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
440 AM CST WED JAN 15 2003

IMPENDING WINTER STORM STILL THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDINESS 
BEGINNING TO WORK BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL SEE A CLOUDY 
COOL DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 
TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY.

INTERESTING SCENARIO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
STORM SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH SO THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL 
WINTER STORM. STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS 
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG 
UPWARD MOTION SHOWN BY GFS MODEL. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION...QUITE 
POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...BREAK OUT RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY IN THE 
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN SPREAD INTO 
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. 

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIG PROBLEM. PARTIAL THICKNESS ARGUES 
AGAINST ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BUT STRONG LIFT AND CONVECTIVE 
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW A QUICKER CHANGEOVER. WILL MENTION 
A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE 
TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH EVERYTHING 
ELSE MENTIONED...WILL NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF 
TULSA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST 
AND 4 INCH SNOWS LOOK MOST LIKELY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT EVERYONE 
WILL SEE THIS MUCH SNOW BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT 
SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL.

LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TULSA AREA 
AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR A FEW COUNTIES WEST OF THE 
CURRENT WATCH.

QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS VALIDATES THIS THINKING WITH PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE 00Z RUN AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
RIGHT WHERE THE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED.

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL EXPIRE 
THE WATCH AT 10 AM THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH CLOUDS NOT CLEARING UNTIL AROUND 
SUNSET.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY TO RAISE 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN LOWER THEM TUESDAY AS 
A FULL BLOWN ARCTIC OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR HERE STARTING AT THAT TIME. 
THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALL MUCH FASTER THAN THE 
GFS AT BRINGING THIS COLD AIR INTO THE AREA SO WILL BITE ON THE COLD 
AIR ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR A 
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART BUT WENT A 
LITTLE COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND THURSDAY.

TUL  40  26  30  15 /  10  70  40   0
FSM  39  32  31  18 /   5  70  50   5
MLC  43  31  33  18 /   5  50  20   0
BVO  38  24  30  12 /  10  80  40   0
FYV  39  29  28  14 /   5  90  60   5
BYV  39  28  27  12 /   5  90  70  10
MIO  39  25  27  11 /  10  90  60   5
MKO  41  29  31  17 /   5  70  40   0
F10  42  28  31  17 /   5  60  30   0
HHW  42  35  34  21 /   5  30  20   0

FORECAST ID= 5

.TSA...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES 
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011.

OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES 
OKZ056>058...OKZ061>063...OKZ068>069.

PLATE