National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTUL
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC Found 2 products at the given pil and timestamp. Scroll down to see them all.
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTUL
Product Timestamp: 2003-01-15 10:40 UTC
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000 FXUS64 KTSA 151044 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 440 AM CST WED JAN 15 2003 IMPENDING WINTER STORM STILL THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO WORK BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL SEE A CLOUDY COOL DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. INTERESTING SCENARIO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH SO THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL WINTER STORM. STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION SHOWN BY GFS MODEL. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION...QUITE POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...BREAK OUT RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY IN THE 02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIG PROBLEM. PARTIAL THICKNESS ARGUES AGAINST ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BUT STRONG LIFT AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW A QUICKER CHANGEOVER. WILL MENTION A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE MENTIONED...WILL NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF TULSA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST AND 4 INCH SNOWS LOOK MOST LIKELY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE THIS MUCH SNOW BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TULSA AREA AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR A FEW COUNTIES WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS VALIDATES THIS THINKING WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE 00Z RUN AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT WHERE THE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL EXPIRE THE WATCH AT 10 AM THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH CLOUDS NOT CLEARING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN LOWER THEM TUESDAY AS A FULL BLOWN ARCTIC OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR HERE STARTING AT THAT TIME. THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALL MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AT BRINGING THIS COLD AIR INTO THE AREA SO WILL BITE ON THE COLD AIR ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART BUT WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND THURSDAY. TUL 40 26 30 15 / 10 70 40 0 FSM 39 32 32 18 / 5 70 50 5 MLC 43 31 33 18 / 5 50 20 0 BVO 38 24 30 12 / 10 80 40 0 FYV 39 29 29 14 / 5 90 60 5 BYV 39 28 28 12 / 5 90 70 10 MIO 39 25 27 11 / 10 90 60 5 MKO 41 29 31 17 / 5 70 40 0 F10 42 28 31 17 / 5 60 30 0 HHW 42 35 35 21 / 5 30 20 0 FORECAST ID= 5 .TSA... AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011. OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES OKZ056>058...OKZ061>063...OKZ068>069. PLATE
000 FXUS64 KTSA 151043 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 440 AM CST WED JAN 15 2003 IMPENDING WINTER STORM STILL THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO WORK BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL SEE A CLOUDY COOL DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. INTERESTING SCENARIO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH SO THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL WINTER STORM. STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION SHOWN BY GFS MODEL. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION...QUITE POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...BREAK OUT RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY IN THE 02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIG PROBLEM. PARTIAL THICKNESS ARGUES AGAINST ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BUT STRONG LIFT AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW A QUICKER CHANGEOVER. WILL MENTION A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE MENTIONED...WILL NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF TULSA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST AND 4 INCH SNOWS LOOK MOST LIKELY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE THIS MUCH SNOW BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TULSA AREA AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR A FEW COUNTIES WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS VALIDATES THIS THINKING WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE 00Z RUN AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT WHERE THE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL EXPIRE THE WATCH AT 10 AM THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH CLOUDS NOT CLEARING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN LOWER THEM TUESDAY AS A FULL BLOWN ARCTIC OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR HERE STARTING AT THAT TIME. THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALL MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AT BRINGING THIS COLD AIR INTO THE AREA SO WILL BITE ON THE COLD AIR ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART BUT WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND THURSDAY. TUL 40 26 30 15 / 10 70 40 0 FSM 39 32 31 18 / 5 70 50 5 MLC 43 31 33 18 / 5 50 20 0 BVO 38 24 30 12 / 10 80 40 0 FYV 39 29 28 14 / 5 90 60 5 BYV 39 28 27 12 / 5 90 70 10 MIO 39 25 27 11 / 10 90 60 5 MKO 41 29 31 17 / 5 70 40 0 F10 42 28 31 17 / 5 60 30 0 HHW 42 35 34 21 / 5 30 20 0 FORECAST ID= 5 .TSA... AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011. OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR ZONES OKZ056>058...OKZ061>063...OKZ068>069. PLATE