823 
FXUS62 KILM 151946
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
240 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2002

SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING 
MODEST WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  UPPER TROF 
MARCHING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT NO SFC REFLECTION AND NO 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  MAIN PLAYERS ARE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF 
PINWHEELING OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND 
WEAKER S/W TROF JUST REACHING BAJA.  

MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS ON TARGET AND SOLUTIONS IN PRETTY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES.  ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WAS ETA 
MOS FIRST 2 PERIODS...TOO COLD TONITE AND TOO WARM MON AND THEREFORE 
DISCOUNTED.  

WESTERLY GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THRU MON.  WILL COUNT ON WINDS 
STAYING AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPS ALONG 
THE COAST.  BUST POTENTIAL OCCURS IF WE GO CALM...AS WE SAW BY 
INLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.  THINKING MID-UPPER 30S 
AT THIS POINT BUT MAY REVISE DOWN AT PRESS TIME.  DECENT WARMUP IN 
STORE MON...AS WEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY SEA BREEZES.  GOING 
FOR LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S INLAND SC.  

COLD FRONT MOVES THRU DRY LATE MON AFTERNOON.  VERY CHILLY WEDGE OF 
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE AROUND.  
NNE GRADIENT STICKS AROUND THRU WED.  THINK MON NIGHT WILL BE THE 
COLDEST NIGHT IF ONLY BY A COUPLE DEGREES.  H5 S/W TROF PROGGED TO 
BRING DECENT LAYER MEAN RH OVER THE TOP OF THE WEDGE TUE NIGHT...BUT 
DRY LOWER LAYERS SHOULD MEAN A TRACE EVENT IF ANYTHING SO WILL JUST 
GO PARTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED: WEDGE HIGH HANGS IN PRETTY TOUGH FOR WED.  WILL NEED TO 
LOOK AT REVISING TEMP FCST A CAT OR TWO COOLER...WILL AIM FOR LOW 
END OF GUIDANCE.   

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THU-FRI MEANS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.  
THU SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.  HEALTHY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETS UP 
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SOMETIME 
FRI.  WINDS WILL KEEP THU NIGHT TEMPS A CAT OR SO ABOVE MEX 
NUMBERS.  WILL ALSO CONSIDER SLIGHT CHC POPS THU NIGHT...AND KEEP 
30-40 POPS FOR FRI.  FAIRLY MILD HIGH PRES FOR SAT-SUN...WHICH 
SHOULD LOOK A LOT LIKE THIS WEEKEND. 

MARINE: WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MON WITH 
A SHIFT TO THE NW LATE MON BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT. WINDS TO INCREASE 
TO 20 KT NRN WATERS MON NGT. WILL KEEP SRN WATERS AT 15-20. AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS IN TUE AND WED...A NORTHERLY FLOW TO REMAIN. GFS 
DEPICTING A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY FRI. WILL RAISE TO 
SCA LEVELS FRI AND FINE TUNE AS SYSTEM NEARS. 

FCSTID = 35

KILM  37 61 33 51 /  00 00 00 00
KLBT  34 62 30 47 /  00 00 00 00
KFLO  36 64 33 50 /  00 00 00 00
KMYR  38 62 35 51 /  00 00 00 00


RAS/PJN