000 
FXUS62 KILM 042145
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
405 PM EST WED DEC 4 2002

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE 
SATURATED WITH DEW POINTS RISING 6-7 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES WITHIN 
THE PAST HOUR. RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PRECIPITATION ALOFT NOW FOR 
SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT MUCH OF IT REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...BUT 
THAT SHOULD CHANGE SHORTLY.  

WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO 
COUNTIES...BUT WILL EXTEND IT THROUGH TONIGHT. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOWS 
THE FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A 
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS TOWARD MORNING. FARTHER E WILL CONTINUE 
THE ADVISORIES WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT ADD 
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY BASED ON FREEZING RAIN REPORTS AND COORDINATION 
WITH CHS AND CAE. THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD 
OCCUR NEAR MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK THAT NWRN POTIONS OF COLUMBUS AND 
HORRY COUNTIES MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THIS 
EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME TO 
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

OCCASIONAL RAIN TO CONTINUE THU MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY 
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. 

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA 
WEATHER SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY BUT RAPIDLY 
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MON.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
AFFECT THE AREA TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WED.  FORECAST 
WILL BE DRY SAT AND SUN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MON AND TUE WITH DRY 
WEATHER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

CWF:  WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW 
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.  
WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY 
FROM THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME...NO ADDITIONAL SCA LEVEL EVENTS ARE 
GOING TO BE FORECAST THROUGH MON AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT 
W-N FLOW THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.  LATEST GFS IS PAINTING NE 
WINDS NEAR FLAG CRITERIA BY EARLY MON.  FOR NOW...WILL GO 20 KT AND 
SEE HOW THE GFS HANDLES THIS COOL SURGE IN LATER RUNS. 

FCSTID =   36
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS..
ILM   39  47  34  48 / 100  90  10  10
LBT   32  41  31  46 / 100  90  10  10
FLO   32  43  32  47 / 100  90  10  10
MYR   39  48  35  48 / 100  90  10  10

.ILM...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING NCZ087-096.      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT SCZ017-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING SCZ024-032>033.      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

SHORT-TERM PUBLIC: JAQ
MARINE/EXTENDED: RAN

000 
FXUS62 KILM 042149 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
405 PM EST WED DEC 4 2002

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE 
SATURATED WITH DEW POINTS RISING 6-7 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES WITHIN 
THE PAST HOUR. RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PRECIPITATION ALOFT NOW FOR 
SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT MUCH OF IT REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...BUT 
THAT SHOULD CHANGE SHORTLY.  

WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO 
COUNTIES...BUT WILL EXTEND IT THROUGH TONIGHT. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOWS 
THE FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A 
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS TOWARD MORNING. FARTHER E WILL CONTINUE 
THE ADVISORIES WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT ADD 
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY BASED ON FREEZING RAIN REPORTS AND COORDINATION 
WITH CHS AND CAE. THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD 
OCCUR NEAR MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK THAT NWRN POTIONS OF COLUMBUS AND 
HORRY COUNTIES MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THIS 
EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME TO 
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

OCCASIONAL RAIN TO CONTINUE THU MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY 
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. 

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA 
WEATHER SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY BUT RAPIDLY 
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MON.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
AFFECT THE AREA TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WED.  FORECAST 
WILL BE DRY SAT AND SUN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MON AND TUE WITH DRY 
WEATHER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

CWF:  WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW 
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.  
WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY 
FROM THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME...NO ADDITIONAL SCA LEVEL EVENTS ARE 
GOING TO BE FORECAST THROUGH MON AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT 
W-N FLOW THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.  LATEST GFS IS PAINTING NE 
WINDS NEAR FLAG CRITERIA BY EARLY MON.  FOR NOW...WILL GO 20 KT AND 
SEE HOW THE GFS HANDLES THIS COOL SURGE IN LATER RUNS. 

FCSTID =   36
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS..
ILM   39  47  34  48 / 100  90  10  10
LBT   32  41  31  46 / 100  90  10  10
FLO   32  43  32  47 / 100  90  10  10
MYR   39  48  35  48 / 100  90  10  10

.ILM...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT NCZ087-096.           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT SCZ017-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT SCZ024-032>033.                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

SHORT-TERM PUBLIC: JAQ
MARINE/EXTENDED: RAN